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Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries


  • Paul Winters
  • Rinku Murgai
  • Elisabeth Sadoulet
  • Alain de Janvry
  • George Frisvold


The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Winters & Rinku Murgai & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain de Janvry & George Frisvold, 1998. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008204419284

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, February.
    3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    4. Reilly, John & Hohmann, Neil, 1993. "Climate Change and Agriculture: The Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 306-312, May.
    5. Schelling, Thomas C, 1992. "Some Economics of Global Warming," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-10, July.
    7. Schimmelpfennig, David & Lewandrowski, Jan & Tsigas, Marinos & Parry, Ian, 1996. "Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Issues of Longrun Sustainability," Agricultural Economics Reports 262033, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Adams, Richard M. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Dudek, Daniel J. & Glyer, J. David, 1988. "Implications Of Global Climate Change For Western Agriculture," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-9, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Munang Tingem & Mike Rivington, 2009. "Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 153-168, February.
    2. Dorothee Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2011. "The Intra-country Distributional Impact of Policies to Fight Climate Change: A Survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 97-117.
    3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard & Antonio Estache, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(6), pages 1-24, June.
    4. Simin SEURY, "undated". "Inward Foreign Investment, Corruption and Firm's Ability: Firm-level Evidence from the Transition Economies," EcoMod2009 21500083, EcoMod.
    5. World Bank, 2005. "Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8264, The World Bank.
    6. Joshua M. Pearce, 2015. "Applications of Open Source 3-D Printing on Small Farms," Organic Farming, Librello publishing house, vol. 1(1), pages 19-35.
    7. repec:ags:ijofsd:258187 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Bob & Faggian, Rob, 2017. "The Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Benefits from Investments in Adaptation Options for Sri Lankan Coconut Value Chains," 2018 International European Forum (163rd EAAE Seminar), February 5-9, 2018, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 276938, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.


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