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Modelling Vulnerability in the UK

  • Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay
  • Frank Cowell

In this paper we examine the concept of vulnerability (Townsend 1994) within the context of income mobility of the poor. We test for the dynamics of vulnerable households in the UK using Waves 1 - 12 of the British Household Panel Survey and find that, of three different types of risks that we test for, household-specific shocks and economy-wide aggregate shocks have the greatest impact on consumption, in comparison to shocks to the income stream. Quantile-specific estimates reveal specific quantiles, particularly those around the poverty line which are most susceptible to be vulnerable to shocks to the income stream. The estimates are found to be robust to household composition and year-specific shocks.

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File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/paper313.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 313.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:313
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Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
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  1. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 1999. "Intertemporal Choice and Consumption Mobility," CSEF Working Papers 23, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  2. Ramos, Xavi & Schluter, Christian, 2006. "Subjective Income Expectations and Income Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1950, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Townsend, R.M., 1991. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 91-3, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  4. Richard Blundell & Ian Preston, 1998. "Consumption Inequality And Income Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 603-640, May.
  5. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
  6. Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567.
  7. Ethan Ligon & Laura Schechter, 2003. "Measuring Vulnerability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C95-C102, March.
  8. Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2004. "Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 1-32, 01.
  9. Amin, Sajeda & Rai, Ashok S. & Topa, Giorgio, 2003. "Does microcredit reach the poor and vulnerable? Evidence from northern Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 59-82, February.
  10. Buhmann, Brigitte, et al, 1988. "Equivalence Scales, Well-Being, Inequality, and Poverty: Sensitivity Estimates across Ten Countries Using the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) Database," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 34(2), pages 115-42, June.
  11. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1993. "Intertemporal Choice and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 4328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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