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Vulnerability to poverty: An empirical comparison of alternative measures

  • Celidoni, Martina
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    The recent common feeling about a skyrocketing economic risk has drawn increasing attention to its role and consequences on individuals' welfare. In literature one of the concepts that aims to measure it is vulnerability to poverty, that is the probability, today, of being in poverty or to fall into deeper poverty in the future (The World Bank, 2011). This paper compares empirically the several measures of individual vulnerability proposed in the literature, in order to understand which is the best signal of poverty that can be used for policies purposes. To this aim the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients are used as precision criteria. The results show that two groups of indexes can be identified, high- and low-performers, and, among the former, that proposed by Dutta et al. (2011) is the most precise.

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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33002.

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    Date of creation: 26 Aug 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33002
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    1. Raghbendra Jha & Tu Dang & K L Sharma, 2008. "Vulnerability to Poverty in Fiji," Departmental Working Papers 2008-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    2. David (David Patrick) Madden, 2008. "Health and income poverty in Ireland, 2003-2006," Working Papers 200815, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Osberg, L., 1999. "Economic Insecurity in the Malaysian Context," Working Papers 22, John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy.
    4. Katsushi Imai & Xiaobing Wang & Woojin Kang, 2010. "Poverty and vulnerability in rural China: effects of taxation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 399-425.
    5. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Determinants of transient and chronic poverty : evidence from rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1936, The World Bank.
    6. Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay & Frank Cowell, 2007. "Modelling Vulnerability in the UK," Economics Series Working Papers 313, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Ethan Ligon & Laura Schechter, 2003. "Measuring Vulnerability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C95-C102, March.
    8. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
    9. James E. Foster & Indranil Dutta & Ajit Mishra, 2010. "On Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty," Working Papers 2010-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    10. Christopher Gerry & Carmen Li, 2010. "Consumption smoothing and vulnerability in Russia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 1995-2007.
    11. Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi Imai & Woojin Kang, 2007. "Vulnerability and poverty dynamics in Vietnam," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0708, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. Md. Shafiul Azam & Katsushi Imai, 2009. "Vulnerability and Poverty in Bangladesh," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0905, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Lars Osberg, 1998. "Economic Insecurity," Discussion Papers 0088, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre.
    14. Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank.
    15. Jamal, Haroon, 2009. "Assessing Vulnerability to Poverty:Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 40228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
    17. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection Discussion Papers 29138, The World Bank.
    18. Zhang, Yuan & Wan, Guanghua, 2008. "Can We Predict Vulnerability to Poverty?," Working Paper Series RP2008/82, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Gaiha, Raghav & Imai, Katsushi, 2008. "Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India," Working Paper Series RP2008/40, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2005. "Measuring Individual Vulnerability," Economics Series Working Papers 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Andrea Brandolini & Silvia Magri & Timothy M. Smeeding, 2010. "Asset-based measurement of poverty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 755, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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