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Vulnerability to poverty: An empirical comparison of alternative measures

  • Celidoni, Martina
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    The recent common feeling about a skyrocketing economic risk has drawn increasing attention to its role and consequences on individuals' welfare. In literature one of the concepts that aims to measure it is vulnerability to poverty, that is the probability, today, of being in poverty or to fall into deeper poverty in the future (The World Bank, 2011). This paper compares empirically the several measures of individual vulnerability proposed in the literature, in order to understand which is the best signal of poverty that can be used for policies purposes. To this aim the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients are used as precision criteria. The results show that two groups of indexes can be identified, high- and low-performers, and, among the former, that proposed by Dutta et al. (2011) is the most precise.

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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33002.

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    Date of creation: 26 Aug 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33002
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    1. Lars Osberg, 1998. "Economic Insecurity," Discussion Papers 0088, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre.
    2. Katsushi Imai & Xiaobing Wang & Woojin Kang, 2010. "Poverty and vulnerability in rural China: effects of taxation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 399-425.
    3. Christopher Gerry & Carmen Li, 2010. "Consumption smoothing and vulnerability in Russia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 1995-2007.
    4. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 29138, The World Bank.
    5. Md. Shafiul Azam & Katsushi S. Imai, 2010. "Vulnerability and poverty in Bangladesh," Working Papers id:2675, eSocialSciences.
    6. Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay & Frank A Cowell, 2007. "Modelling Vulnerability in the UK," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 89, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    7. Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Woojin Kang, 2011. "Vulnerability and poverty dynamics in Vietnam," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3603-3618.
    8. Madden, D, 2008. "Health and Income Poverty in Ireland, 2003-2006," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 08/14, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Gaiha, Raghav & Imai, Katsushi, 2008. "Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India," Working Paper Series RP2008/40, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Jamal, Haroon, 2009. "Assessing Vulnerability to Poverty:Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 40228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2005. "Measuring Individual Vulnerability," Economics Series Working Papers 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
    13. Osberg, L., 1999. "Economic Insecurity in the Malaysian Context," Working Papers 22, John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy.
    14. Ligon, Ethan & Schechter, Laura, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19899, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Determinants of transient and chronic poverty : evidence from rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1936, The World Bank.
    16. Indranil Dutta & James Foster & Ajit Mishra, 2011. "On measuring vulnerability to poverty," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 37(4), pages 743-761, October.
    17. Raghbendra JHA & Tu DANG & Krishna Lal SHARMA, 2009. "Vulnerability to poverty in Fiji," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    18. Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank.
    19. Andrea Brandolini & Silvia Magri & Timothy M. Smeeding, 2010. "Asset-based measurement of poverty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 755, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
    21. Zhang, Yuan & Wan, Guanghua, 2008. "Can We Predict Vulnerability to Poverty?," Working Paper Series RP2008/82, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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