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Can We Predict Vulnerability to Poverty?

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  • Yuan Zhang
  • Guanghua Wan

Abstract

There are alternative definitions of vulnerability to poverty. Most researchers prefer to define vulnerability as the probability of a household or individual falling into poverty in the future. Based on this definition and using household survey panel data from rural China, this paper attempt to assess the extent to which we can measure vulnerability to poverty. The assessment is based on comparisons between predicted vulnerability and actually observed poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2008. "Can We Predict Vulnerability to Poverty?," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-82, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-82
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/rp2008-82.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shijiang Chen & Mingyue Liang & Wen Yang, 2022. "Does Digital Financial Inclusion Reduce China’s Rural Household Vulnerability to Poverty: An Empirical Analysis From the Perspective of Household Entrepreneurship," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, June.
    2. Katsushi Imai & Xiaobing Wang & Woojin Kang, 2010. "Poverty and vulnerability in rural China: effects of taxation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 399-425.
    3. Muhammad Masood Azeem & Amin W. Mugera & Steven Schilizzi & Kadambot H. M. Siddique, 2017. "An Assessment of Vulnerability to Poverty in Punjab, Pakistan: Subjective Choices of Poverty Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 117-152, October.
    4. Zereyesus, Yacob A. & Embaye, Weldensie T. & Tsiboe, Francis & Amanor-Boadu, Vincent, 2017. "Implications of Non-Farm Work to Vulnerability to Food Poverty-Recent Evidence From Northern Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 113-124.
    5. Adepoju, A., 2018. "determinants of multidimensional poverty transitions among rural households in Nigeria," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276027, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Celidoni, Martina, 2011. "Vulnerability to poverty: An empirical comparison of alternative measures," MPRA Paper 33002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Novignon, Jacob, 2010. "Estimating household vulnerability to poverty from cross section data: an empirical evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 39900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Isaac Koomson & Renato A. Villano & David Hadley, 2020. "Effect of Financial Inclusion on Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty: Evidence Using a Multidimensional Measure of Financial Inclusion," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 613-639, June.
    9. Hardeweg, Bernd & Wagener, Andreas & Waibel, Hermann, 2013. "A distributional approach to comparing vulnerability, applied to rural provinces in Thailand and Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 53-65.
    10. Zereyesus, Yacob & Embaye, Weldensie & Tsiboe, Francis & Amanor-Boadu, Vincent, 2016. "Participation in non-farm work and vulnerability to food poverty of households in northern Ghana," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235741, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Séverin Aimé Blanchard Ouadika, 2020. "Health shocks and vulnerability to poverty in Congo," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, December.
    12. Martina Celidoni, 2013. "Vulnerability to poverty: an empirical comparison of alternative measures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1493-1506, April.
    13. Bronfman, Javier & Floro, Maria, 2014. "How well has the Social Protection Scheme Reduced Vulnerability in Chile?," MPRA Paper 63255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bronfman, Javier, 2014. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty in Chile Using the National Socio Economic Characterization Panel Survey for 1996, 2001, 2006," MPRA Paper 62689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jamal, Haroon, 2021. "Updating Pakistan’s Poverty Numbers for the Year 2019," MPRA Paper 105135, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jan 2021.
    16. Maria S. Floro & Javier Bronfman, 2012. "How Well have Social Protection Schemes in Chile Reduced Household Vulnerability?," Working Papers 2012-03, American University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income distribution; Poverty; Poverty measurement;
    All these keywords.

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