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When do students intend to return? Determinants of students' return intentions using a multinomial logit model


  • Jan-Jan Soon

    () (Department of Economics, University of Otago)


Using a multinomial logit model, this paper looks at the determinants of when tertiary level international students intend to return home upon completion of their studies in New Zealand, be it not return, return immediately, return after some working stint, or return after some further education. Good perceptions of home have a strong positive impact on the probability of returning immediately, with perception of home lifestyle having the strongest impact. Contrary to received wisdom, perception of wage does not play a dominant role in determining when students intend to return home.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Jan Soon, 2009. "When do students intend to return? Determinants of students' return intentions using a multinomial logit model," Working Papers 0906, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:0906

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Baruch, Yehuda & Budhwar, Pawan S. & Khatri, Naresh, 2007. "Brain drain: Inclination to stay abroad after studies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 99-112, March.
    2. Nil Demet Gungor & Aysıt Tansel, 2008. "Brain drain from Turkey: an investigation of students' return intentions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(23), pages 3069-3087.
    3. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-1240, September.
    4. Cramer, J. S. & Ridder, G., 1991. "Pooling states in the multinomial logit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 267-272, February.
    5. Oded Stark, 2005. "The New Economics of the Brain Drain," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 6(2), pages 137-140, April.
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
    7. Small, Kenneth A & Hsiao, Cheng, 1985. "Multinomial Logit Specification Tests," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 619-627, October.
    8. J. Scott Long, 1987. "A Graphical Method for the Interpretation of Multinomial Logit Analysis," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 15(4), pages 420-446, May.
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    More about this item


    Students' migration; multinomial logit model; return intention;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers


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