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Can Long-Term Cohabiting and Marital Unions be Incentivized?

Author

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  • Audrey Light

    () (Department of Economics, Ohio State University)

  • Yoshiaki Omori

    (Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University)

Abstract

In this study, we ask whether economic factors that can be directly manipulated by public policy have important effects on the probability that women experience long-lasting unions. Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we estimate a fivestage sequential choice model for women’s transitions between single with no prior unions, cohabiting, first-married, re-single (divorced or separated), and remarried. We control for expected income tax burdens, AFDC or TANF benefits, Medicaid expenditures, and parameters of state divorce laws, along with an array of demographic, family background, and market factors. We simulate women’s sequences of transitions from age 18 to 48, and use the simulated outcomes to predict the probability that a woman with given characteristics (a) forms a first union by age 24 and maintains the union for at least 12 years, and (b) forms a second union by age 36 and maintains it for at least 12 years. While nonpolicy factors such as race and schooling prove to have important effects on the predicted probabilities of long-term unions, the policy factors have small and/or imprecisely estimated effects; in short, we fail to identify policy mechanisms that could potentially be used to incentivize long-term unions.

Suggested Citation

  • Audrey Light & Yoshiaki Omori, 2012. "Can Long-Term Cohabiting and Marital Unions be Incentivized?," Working Papers 12-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:osu:osuewp:12-01
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    File URL: http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/pdf/alight/wp12-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Angeles, Gustavo & Guilkey, David K & Mroz, Thomas A, 2005. "The Effects of Education and Family Planning Programs on Fertility in Indonesia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 165-201, October.
    12. Audrey Light & Yoshiaki Omori, 2013. "Determinants of Long-Term Unions: Who Survives the “Seven Year Itch”?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(6), pages 851-891, December.
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    1. Audrey Light & Yoshiaki Omori, 2013. "Determinants of Long-Term Unions: Who Survives the “Seven Year Itch”?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(6), pages 851-891, December.

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