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COVID-19 and Violent Crime: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia

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  • Payne, Jason Leslie

    (Australian National University)

  • Morgan, Anthony

Abstract

At the time of writing, there was 2.9 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 200,000 deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Among these government and regulatory interventions includes unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as a raft of stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Each has left criminologists wondering what impact this will have on crime in both the short- and long-term. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offence and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March 2020. We conclude that the observed rates of reported violent offending across Queensland were not--at least not so far--significantly different from what was expected given the history of each offence series.

Suggested Citation

  • Payne, Jason Leslie & Morgan, Anthony, 2020. "COVID-19 and Violent Crime: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia," SocArXiv g4kh7, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:g4kh7
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/g4kh7
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    1. Amber Peterman & Alina Potts & Megan O'Donnell & Kelly Thompson & Niyati Shah & Sabine Oertelt-Prigione & Nicole van Gelder, 2020. "Pandemics and Violence Against Women and Children," Working Papers 528, Center for Global Development.
    2. Mohler, George & Bertozzi, Andrea L. & Carter, Jeremy & Short, Martin B. & Sledge, Daniel & Tita, George E. & Uchida, Craig D. & Brantingham, P. Jeffrey, 2020. "Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    2. Moslehi, Solmaz & Parasnis, Jaai & Tani, Massimiliano & Vejayaratnam, Josephina, 2021. "Assaults during Lockdown in NSW and Victoria," IZA Discussion Papers 14573, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Santiago M. Perez-Vincent & Enrique Carreras, 2022. "Domestic violence reporting during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Latin America," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 799-830, September.
    4. Rocha, Fabiana & Diaz, Maria Dolores Montoya & Pereda, Paula Carvalho & Árabe, Isadora Bousquat & Cavalcanti, Filipe & Lordemus, Samuel & Kreif, Noemi & Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo, 2024. "COVID-19 and violence against women: Current knowledge, gaps, and implications for public policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Langton, Samuel & Farrell, Graham & Dixon, Anthony, 2020. "Six Months In: Pandemic Crime Trends in England and Wales," SocArXiv t7ne8, Center for Open Science.
    6. Zheng, Ziwan & Huang, Shuqi & Ning, Yueqiao & Mao, Yuanyuan & Wang, Can, 2025. "Will regular COVID-19 control measures impact the spatial distribution of two-wheeled vehicle theft?: A case study of NH city, China," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Claudia Masferrer & Oscar Rodríguez Chávez, 2022. "Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 367-390.
    8. Takaku, Reo & Yokoyama, Izumi, 2021. "What the COVID-19 school closure left in its wake: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Japan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Roee Sarel, 2022. "Crime and punishment in times of pandemics," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 155-186, October.
    10. Wolff, Kevin T. & Intravia, Jonathan & Baglivio, Michael T. & Piquero, Alex R., 2022. "Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2023. "The Initial and Dynamic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Crime in New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 23/03, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    12. Solmaz Moslehi & Jaai Parasnis & Massimiliano Tani & Josephina Vejayaratnam, 2021. "Assaults during lockdown in New South Wales and Victoria," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 24(2), pages 199-212.
    13. Chelsea Gray & Kirstine Hansen, 2021. "Did the first Covid-19 national lockdown lead to an increase in domestic abuse in London?," DoQSS Working Papers 21-27, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    14. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2022. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis: An internet search activity‐based measure for the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 498-518, April.
    15. Ejrnæs, Anders & Scherg, Rune H., 2022. "Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Lin Liu & Jiayu Chang & Dongping Long & Heng Liu, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Violent Crime," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-10, November.
    17. Piquero, Alex R. & Jennings, Wesley G. & Jemison, Erin & Kaukinen, Catherine & Knaul, Felicia Marie, 2021. "Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic - Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2022. "Crime and mobility during the COVID-19 lockdown: a preliminary empirical exploration," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 106-113, January.
    19. Bilge Erten & Pinar Keskin & Silvia Prina, 2022. "Social Distancing, Stimulus Payments, and Domestic Violence: Evidence from the US during COVID-19," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 262-266, May.
    20. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2020. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis," IFS Working Papers W20/29, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    21. Gian Maria Campedelli & Serena Favarin & Alberto Aziani & Alex R. Piquero, 2020. "Disentangling Community-level Changes in Crime Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chicago," Papers 2011.05658, arXiv.org.
    22. Ivandic, Ria & Kirchmaier, Thomas & Linton, Ben, 2020. "Changing patterns of domestic abuse during Covid-19 lockdown," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108483, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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