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COVID-19 and Social Distancing Measures in Queensland Australia Are Associated with Short-Term Decreases in Recorded Violent Crime

Author

Listed:
  • Payne, Jason Leslie

    (Australian National University)

  • Morgan, Anthony
  • Piquero, Alex R.

Abstract

Since first diagnosed in late 2019, there have been more than 4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than a quarter of a million deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the virus through the adoption of unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Whether these policies have altered criminal activity is an important question. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March and April, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offense and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March and April 2020. We conclude that by the end of April, rates of common, serious and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years, and for serious assault and sexual assault the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached in Queensland has remained unchanged throughout the first two months of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Payne, Jason Leslie & Morgan, Anthony & Piquero, Alex R., 2020. "COVID-19 and Social Distancing Measures in Queensland Australia Are Associated with Short-Term Decreases in Recorded Violent Crime," SocArXiv z4m8t, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:z4m8t
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/z4m8t
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    1. Amber Peterman & Alina Potts & Megan O'Donnell & Kelly Thompson & Niyati Shah & Sabine Oertelt-Prigione & Nicole van Gelder, 2020. "Pandemics and Violence Against Women and Children," Working Papers 528, Center for Global Development.
    2. Mohler, George & Bertozzi, Andrea L. & Carter, Jeremy & Short, Martin B. & Sledge, Daniel & Tita, George E. & Uchida, Craig D. & Brantingham, P. Jeffrey, 2020. "Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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    5. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A. & Frank, Richard & Pringle, Darren, 2022. "Crime down in the Paris of the prairies: Spatial effects of COVID-19 and crime during lockdown in Saskatoon, Canada," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Beland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Haddad, Joanne & Mikola, Derek, 2020. "Covid-19, Family Stress and Domestic Violence: Remote Work, Isolation and Bargaining Power," GLO Discussion Paper Series 571, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Ejrnæs, Anders & Scherg, Rune H., 2022. "Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Louis-Philippe Béladn & Abel Brodeur & Joanne Haddad & Derek Mikola, 2021. "Determinants of Family Stress and Domestic Violence: Lessons from the COVID-19 Outbreak," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 47(3), pages 439-459, September.
    9. Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Fernandez-Kranz, Daniel & Nollenberger, Natalia, 2021. "Intimate partner violence under forced cohabitation and economic stress: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    10. Hong, Sunmin & Jeong, Dohyo & Kim, Pyung, 2024. "Have offender demographics changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from money mules in South Korea," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Amy E. Nivette & Renee Zahnow & Raul Aguilar & Andri Ahven & Shai Amram & Barak Ariel & María José Arosemena Burbano & Roberta Astolfi & Dirk Baier & Hyung-Min Bark & Joris E. H. Beijers & Marcelo Ber, 2021. "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 868-877, July.
    12. Payne, Jason L. & Langfield, Cameron T., 2021. "Drug offence detection during the pandemic: A spatiotemporal study of drug markets," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Mengqing Long & Jia Huang & Yishun Peng & Yawen Mai & Xian Yuan & Xinhua Yang, 2022. "The Short- and Long-Term Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Child Maltreatment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-12, March.
    14. Wolff, Kevin T. & Intravia, Jonathan & Baglivio, Michael T. & Piquero, Alex R., 2022. "Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Gian Maria Campedelli & Serena Favarin & Alberto Aziani & Alex R. Piquero, 2020. "Disentangling Community-level Changes in Crime Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chicago," Papers 2011.05658, arXiv.org.
    16. Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Fernández-Kranz, Daniel & Nollenberger, Natalia, 2020. "Can't Leave You Now! Intimate Partner Violence under Forced Coexistence and Economic Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 13570, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. repec:osf:socarx:cw6a4_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Umair Muneer Butt & Sukumar Letchmunan & Fadratul Hafinaz Hassan & Tieng Wei Koh, 2022. "Hybrid of deep learning and exponential smoothing for enhancing crime forecasting accuracy," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(9), pages 1-22, September.
    20. Ryan Thomson & Rebecca Mosier & Michelle Worosz, 2023. "COVID research across the social sciences in 2020: a bibliometric approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(6), pages 3377-3399, June.
    21. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," SocArXiv cw6a4, Center for Open Science.

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