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A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Author

Listed:
  • Amy E. Nivette

    (Utrecht University
    Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR))

  • Renee Zahnow

    (University of Queensland)

  • Raul Aguilar

    (Mossos d’Esquadra, Catalan Police)

  • Andri Ahven

    (Ministry of Justice)

  • Shai Amram

    (Hebrew University)

  • Barak Ariel

    (Hebrew University
    University of Cambridge)

  • María José Arosemena Burbano

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Roberta Astolfi

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Dirk Baier

    (Institute of Delinquency and Crime Prevention, Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften (ZHAW) School of Social Work)

  • Hyung-Min Bark

    (Korean Institute of Criminology)

  • Joris E. H. Beijers

    (Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR))

  • Marcelo Bergman

    (Centro de Estudios Latinoamericano sobre Inseguridad y Violencia (CELIV), Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero)

  • Gregory Breetzke

    (Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria)

  • I. Alberto Concha-Eastman

    (Secretariat of Health)

  • Sophie Curtis-Ham

    (Evidence Based Policing Centre, New Zealand Police)

  • Ryan Davenport

    (University College London
    London Metropolitan Police)

  • Carlos Díaz

    (Catholic University of Uruguay)

  • Diego Fleitas

    (Centro de Estudios Latinoamericano sobre Inseguridad y Violencia (CELIV), Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero)

  • Manne Gerell

    (Malmö University)

  • Kwang-Ho Jang

    (Smart Policing Intelligence Center, Police Science Institute)

  • Juha Kääriäinen

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Tapio Lappi-Seppälä

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Woon-Sik Lim

    (Smart Policing Intelligence Center, Police Science Institute)

  • Rosa Loureiro Revilla

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Lorraine Mazerolle

    (University of Queensland)

  • Gorazd Meško

    (University of Maribor)

  • Noemí Pereda

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Maria F. T. Peres

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Rubén Poblete-Cazenave

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Simon Rose

    (University of Cambridge
    London Metropolitan Police)

  • Robert Svensson

    (Malmö University)

  • Nico Trajtenberg

    (Cardiff University)

  • Tanja Lippe

    (Utrecht University)

  • Joran Veldkamp

    (Utrecht University)

  • Carlos J. Vilalta Perdomo

    (Center for Research in Geospatial Information Sciences (CentroGeo))

  • Manuel P. Eisner

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Zürich)

Abstract

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Amy E. Nivette & Renee Zahnow & Raul Aguilar & Andri Ahven & Shai Amram & Barak Ariel & María José Arosemena Burbano & Roberta Astolfi & Dirk Baier & Hyung-Min Bark & Joris E. H. Beijers & Marcelo Ber, 2021. "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 868-877, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:5:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01139-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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