IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/fp93g_v1.html

Climate Change and Political Entry: Evidence from Brazilian Municipal Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Fasolin, Guilherme Natan
  • Valentim, António

Abstract

Does climate change affect who runs for office, and how? As extreme weather events intensify, they create social and economic challenges that likely impact political candidacy. We build on existing research on mass political participation and the political economy of candidate entry and test how extreme weather events affect candidate pools. Using a novel dataset of flooding events and mayoral candidates in Brazil (2000-2020), we employ a difference-in-differences design and find that floods reduce the education level of mayoral candidates. Using data on federal transfers, corruption audits, and surveys, we show the effects on education can be driven by rent-seeking and outside options. By shedding light on the effects of climate change on candidate selection, this study highlights how climate change can paradoxically increase the representation of underrepresented groups in politics.

Suggested Citation

  • Fasolin, Guilherme Natan & Valentim, António, 2026. "Climate Change and Political Entry: Evidence from Brazilian Municipal Elections," SocArXiv fp93g_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:fp93g_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/fp93g_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/699344a3e9d4a1356fd1721d/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/fp93g_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Currie, Janet & Rossin-Slater, Maya, 2013. "Weathering the storm: Hurricanes and birth outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 487-503.
    2. Schaub, Max, 2021. "Acute Financial Hardship and Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence from the Sequence of Bank Working Days," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1258-1274, November.
    3. Katherine Casey & Abou Bakarr Kamara & Niccoló F. Meriggi, 2021. "An Experiment in Candidate Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1575-1612, May.
    4. Tim Wappenhans & António Valentim & Heike Klüver & Lukas F. Stoetzer, 2024. "Extreme weather events do not increase political parties' environmental attention," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(7), pages 696-699, July.
    5. Francesco Caselli & Guy Michaels, 2013. "Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 208-238, January.
    6. Carleton, Tamma A & Hsiang, Solomon M, 2016. "Social and economic impacts of climate," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2vz2d2zz, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    7. Ferraz, Claudio & Finan, Frederico S., 2008. "Motivating Politicians: The Impacts of Monetary Incentives on Quality and Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 3411, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Richard L. Fox & Jennifer L. Lawless, 2005. "To Run or Not to Run for Office: Explaining Nascent Political Ambition," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 642-659, July.
    9. Matthew J. Hornsey & Emily A. Harris & Paul G. Bain & Kelly S. Fielding, 2016. "Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 622-626, June.
    10. Brollo, Fernanda & Troiano, Ugo, 2016. "What happens when a woman wins an election? Evidence from close races in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 28-45.
    11. Stokes, Susan C., 2005. "Perverse Accountability: A Formal Model of Machine Politics with Evidence from Argentina," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 315-325, August.
    12. Eric Avis & Claudio Ferraz & Frederico Finan & Carlos Varjão, 2022. "Money and Politics: The Effects of Campaign Spending Limits on Political Entry and Competition," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 167-199, October.
    13. Cavalcanti, Francisco & Daniele, Gianmarco & Galletta, Sergio, 2018. "Popularity shocks and political selection," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 201-216.
    14. Lucas M. Novaes, 2018. "Disloyal Brokers and Weak Parties," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 84-98, January.
    15. Nichter, Simeon, 2008. "Vote Buying or Turnout Buying? Machine Politics and the Secret Ballot," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 19-31, February.
    16. Raymond Fisman & Florian Schulz & Vikrant Vig, 2014. "The Private Returns to Public Office," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(4), pages 806-862.
    17. Eggers, Andrew C. & Hainmueller, Jens, 2009. "MPs for Sale? Returns to Office in Postwar British Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 513-533, November.
    18. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    19. Matias Spektor & Guilherme N. Fasolin & Juliana Camargo, 2023. "Climate change beliefs and their correlates in Latin America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Black, Gordon S., 1972. "A Theory of Political Ambition: Career Choices and the Role of Structural Incentives," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 144-159, March.
    21. Schaub, Max, 2021. "Acute Financial Hardship and Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence from the Sequence of Bank Working Days," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 115(4), pages 1258-1274.
    22. Sam Asher & Paul Novosad, 2023. "Rent-Seeking and Criminal Politicians: Evidence from Mining Booms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 20-39, January.
    23. Raghabendra Chattopadhyay & Esther Duflo, 2004. "Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1409-1443, September.
    24. Valeria Groppo & Kati Kraehnert, 2017. "The impact of extreme weather events on education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 433-472, April.
    25. Ernesto Dal Bó & Frederico Finan, 2018. "Progress and Perspectives in the Study of Political Selection," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 541-575, August.
    26. Nicholas Carnes & Noam Lupu, 2015. "Rethinking the Comparative Perspective on Class and Representation: Evidence from Latin America," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(1), pages 1-18, January.
    27. John T. Gasper & Andrew Reeves, 2011. "Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 340-355, April.
    28. Betz, Timm & Fortunato, David & O’Brien, Diana Z., 2023. "Do Women Make More Protectionist Trade Policy?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1522-1530, November.
    29. Hazlett, Chad & Mildenberger, Matto, 2020. "Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1365, November.
    30. Fernanda Brollo & Tommaso Nannicini & Roberto Perotti & Guido Tabellini, 2013. "The Political Resource Curse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1759-1796, August.
    31. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    32. Alberto Alesina & Traviss Cassidy & Ugo Troiano, 2019. "Old and Young Politicians," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(344), pages 689-727, October.
    33. Marsh, Wayde Z. C., 2023. "Trauma and Turnout: The Political Consequences of Traumatic Events," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1036-1052, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:cdiwps:hal-05056150 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Brunello, Giorgio & Bertoni, Marco & De Paola, Maria & Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2025. "The long run earnings effects of winning a mayoral election," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    3. Thomas Braendle & Alois Stutzer, 2017. "Voters and Representatives: How Should Representatives Be Selected?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2017-05, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    4. Resce, Giuliano, 2022. "The impact of political and non-political officials on the financial management of local governments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 943-962.
    5. Jean-Benoît Eymeoud & Paul Vertier, 2018. "Gender Biases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in French Local Elections," Post-Print hal-03393139, HAL.
    6. Ricardo Dahis & Christiane Szerman, 2023. "Decentralizing Development: Evidence from Government Splits," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    7. Paul Vertier, 2018. "The Democratic Challenges of Electoral Representation and Populism: an Empirical Approach," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7omfps2eu39, Sciences Po.
    8. Peveri, Julieta, 2022. "The wise, the politician, and the strongman: Types of national leaders and quality of governance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 849-895.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3f39ik5s3j8qapmbpohu7nct0i is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Britto, Diogo & Daniele, Gianmarco & Le Moglie, Marco & Pinotti, Paolo & Sampaio, Breno, 2024. "A Few Bad Apples? Criminal Charges, Political Careers, and Policy Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 17328, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Jean-Benoît Eyméoud & Paul Vertier, 2023. "Gender biases: evidence from a natural experiment in French local elections," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 38(113), pages 3-56.
    12. Julieta Peveri, 2021. "The Wise, the Politician and the Strongman: National Leaders' Type and Quality of Governance," AMSE Working Papers 2120, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised May 2022.
    13. Paul Vertier, 2018. "The democratic challenges of electoral representation and populism : an empirical approach [Les défis démocratiques de la représentation électorale et du populisme : une approche empirique]," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) tel-03419534, HAL.
    14. Resce, Giuliano, 2022. "Political and Non-Political Officials in Local Government," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22079, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    15. Jean-Benoît Eymeoud & Paul Vertier, 2018. "Gender Biases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in French Local Elections," Post-Print hal-03393139, HAL.
    16. Bordignon, Massimo & Gamalerio, Matteo & Turati, Gilberto, 2020. "Manager or professional politician? Local fiscal autonomy and the skills of elected officials," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Čellárová, Katarína & Staněk, Rostislav, 2024. "Contest and resource allocation: An experimental analysis of entitlement and self-selection effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin & Muhoza, Florence, 2025. "The effect of increased women's legislative representation on women's well-being," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    19. Julieta Peveri, 2021. "The Wise, the Politician and the Strongman: National Leaders' Type and Quality of Governance," Working Papers halshs-03173020, HAL.
    20. Alexandre Volle & Antoine Cazals & Bilal El Rafhi, 2023. "Another Wind of Change? Evidence about Political Outsiders in the French Parliament," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 133(2), pages 203-231.
    21. Paul Pelzl & Steven Poelhekke, 2023. "Democratization, leader education and growth: firm-level evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 571-600, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:fp93g_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.