Disasters, Political Instability, and Economic Growth: Why Integrated Policies Matter in Fragile States

This paper explores the relationship between political stability, natural disasters, and economic growth in Haiti, a fragile and disaster-prone state. Using time-series data from 1990 to 2024, we estimate a series of regression models to evaluate whether political stability contributes to growth and whether its effect is influenced by the frequency of natural disasters. Baseline results suggest that political stability has a statistically significant and economically meaningful effect on economic growth. However, the interaction between political stability and natural disasters is not consistently significant across all model specifications. Robustness checks, including corrections for autocorrelation, clustered standard errors, and the exclusion of extreme years, indicate that while the interaction effect may exist, it is sensitive to assumptions about time dependence and model specification. By contrast, variables such as foreign direct investment, population growth, and global economic conditions emerge as more stable predictors of economic performance. These findings highlight the importance of political stability in fragile contexts, but they also suggest that its benefits may be limited when environmental shocks are frequent. Despite data constraints and the focus on a single country, the study contributes to broader debates on fragility and development by emphasizing the need for integrated policy strategies that combine institutional strengthening with climate resilience.