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Learning about Variable Demand in the Long Run

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  • Aldo Rustichini
  • Asher Wolinsky

Abstract

This paper studies the problem of a monopoly who is uncertain about the demand it faces and learns about it over time through its pricing experience. The demand curve facing the monopoly is not constant--it changes over time in how it differs from an informed monopoly's policy. It turns out that, even when the rate at which the demand varies is negligible, the stationary probability with which the monopoly's policy deviates from its informed counterpart is non-negligible, as long as the discount factor is below 1.

Suggested Citation

  • Aldo Rustichini & Asher Wolinsky, 1992. "Learning about Variable Demand in the Long Run," Discussion Papers 1015, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1015
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    File URL: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/papers/1015.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton & Christopher Harris & Bruno Jullien, 1991. "Optimal Learning by Experimentation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(4), pages 621-654.
    2. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1990. "Actively Learning about Demand and the Dynamics of Price Adjustment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 882-898, September.
    3. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Controlling a Stochastic Process with Unknown Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1045-1064, September.
    4. McLennan, Andrew, 1984. "Price dispersion and incomplete learning in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 331-347, September.
    5. Balvers, Ronald J. & Cosimano, Thomas F., 1993. "Periodic learning about a hidden state variable," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 805-827.
    6. Nyarko, Yaw & Olson, Lars J., 1996. "Optimal growth with unobservable resources and learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 465-491, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klumpp, Tilman, 2006. "Linear learning in changing environments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2577-2611, December.
    2. Squintani, Francesco & Valimaki, Juuso, 2002. "Imitation and Experimentation in Changing Contests," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 376-404, June.
    3. Urtzi Ayesta & M Erausquin & E Ferreira & P Jacko, 2016. "Optimal Dynamic Resource Allocation to Prevent Defaults," Working Papers hal-01300681, HAL.
    4. Battaglini, Marco, 2007. "Optimality and renegotiation in dynamic contracting," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 213-246, August.
    5. Marco Ottaviani & Giuseppe Moscarini & Lones Smith, 1998. "Social learning in a changing world," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 11(3), pages 657-665.
    6. Loginova, Oksana & Taylor, Curtis, 2003. "Price Experimentation with Strategic Buyers," Working Papers 03-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    7. Oksana Loginova & Curtis Taylor, 2008. "Price experimentation with strategic buyers," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 12(3), pages 165-187, September.
    8. Francesco Squintani & Juuso Valimaki, 1999. "Imitation and Experimentation in a Changing Environment," Discussion Papers 1275, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    9. Dan Bernhardt & Bart Taub, 2015. "Learning about common and private values in oligopoly," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(1), pages 66-85, March.
    10. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 501-534, April.
    11. Kaywana Raeburn & Jim Engle-Warnick & Sonia Laszlo & Jian Li, 2016. "Learning in a Bandit Game and Technology Choice," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-47, CIRANO.
    12. Marco Battaglini, 2005. "Long-Term Contracting with Markovian Consumers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 637-658, June.
    13. Mason, Robin & Välimäki, Juuso, 2011. "Learning about the arrival of sales," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1699-1711, July.
    14. Urtzi Ayesta & M Erausquin & E Ferreira & P Jacko, 2016. "Optimal Dynamic Resource Allocation to Prevent Defaults," Post-Print hal-01300681, HAL.
    15. Tracy R. Lewis & Huseyin Yildirim, 2002. "Managing Dynamic Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 779-797, September.
    16. Agbo, Maxime, 2015. "A perpetual search for talents across overlapping generations: A learning process," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 131-145.

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