IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/13-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Important is Exports and FDI for China's Economic Growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Yuqing Xing

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Manisha Pradhananga

    (Asian Development Bank Institute; University of Massachusetts Amherst)

Abstract

The Global Financial Crisis and the recent slowdown of China’s growth have led to questions about the sustainability of China’s growth. The argument is that, China is too dependent on external demand and that it needs to “rebalance” its economy toward domestic consumption. However, conventional measures of external: net exports-over-GDP and exports-over-GDP are biased and do not accurately measure the contribution of external demand to GDP growth. In this paper, we propose two measures that are simple modifications of the conventional measures. We argue that our proposed measures provide a more accurate estimate of the vulnerability of China’s economy to external shocks, in the form of exports and FDI. Our estimates show that in 2001, exports and FDI accounted for 18.2% of GDP growth and by 2004 the share rose to 49 percent. During 2005-2007, the contribution of exports and FDI to growth remained in the range of 38-40 percent. Our estimates also show that the impressive recovery of the Chinese economy in the post-crisis period owed at least 53% of its growth to exports and FDI. Based on these results, we conclude that the Chinese economy remains highly dependent on external demand in the form of exports and FDI, and re-balancing the economy towards domestic demand has not been achieved yet.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuqing Xing & Manisha Pradhananga, 2013. "How Important is Exports and FDI for China's Economic Growth?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-04, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:13-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=1115&item_no=1&attribute_id=20&file_no=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    2. Xing, Yuqing, 2012. "Processing trade, exchange rates and China's bilateral trade balances," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 540-547.
    3. He, Dong & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-104, February.
    4. Dees, Stephane, 2001. "The opening policy in China: Simulations of a macroeconometric model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 397-410, May.
    5. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    6. Tingvall, Patrik Gustavsson & Ljungwall, Christer, 2012. "Is China different? A meta-analysis of export-led growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 177-179.
    7. Xiaohui Liu & Peter Burridge & P. J. N. Sinclair, 2002. "Relationships between economic growth, foreign direct investment and trade: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1433-1440.
    8. Judith A. Giles, & Cara L. Williams, 1999. "Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results," Econometrics Working Papers 9901, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    9. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2011. "Export Dependence and Sustainability of Growth in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Sumei Tang & E. A. Selvanathan & S. Selvanathan, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1292-1309, October.
    11. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jai Sheen Mah, 2010. "Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Economic Growth: The Case of Korea," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 726-735, November.
    13. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    14. Yuqing Xing & Neal Detert, 2010. "How iPhone Widens the US Trade Deficits with the PRC?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 10-21, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    15. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1055-1065.
    16. Mah, Jai S., 2010. "Foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth of China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 155-158, January.
    17. John Weiss, 2005. "Export Growth and Industrial Policy: Lessons from the East Asian Miracle Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 47618, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Furong Jin & Keun Lee & Yee‐Kyoung Kim, 2008. "Changing Engines of Growth in China: From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 31-49, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Megersa, kelbesa & Cassimon, Danny, 2016. "Debt Sustainability and direction of trade: What does Africa’s shifting engagement with BRIC and OECD tells us?," MPRA Paper 76581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Syed Ali Raza & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2018. "Influence of Systemic Banking Crises and Currency Crises on the FDI-Growth Nexus: Evidence from China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 572-589, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xing, Yuqing & Pradhananga, Manisha, 2013. "How Important are Exports and Foreign Direct Investment for Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China?," ADBI Working Papers 427, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    3. Yalta, A. Yasemin, 2013. "Revisiting the FDI-led growth Hypothesis: The case of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 335-343.
    4. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 620-631, June.
    5. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    6. María Jesús Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2010. "Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China's Growth?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 34-51.
    7. N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers AESRI-2021-04, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    8. Champa Bati Dutta & Mohammed Ziaul Haider & Debasish Kumar Das, 2017. "Dynamics of Economic Growth, Investment and Trade Openness: Evidence from Bangladesh," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 82-104, June.
    9. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 620-631, June.
    10. Arslan Razmi & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2011. "Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration," Trade Working Papers 23207, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall, 2019. "The Nexus Between Economic Growth, Stock Market Depth, Trade Openness, And Foreign Direct Investment: The Case Of Asean Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 461-493, June.
    12. Lili Yan ING & Miaojie YU, 2015. "Intensive and Extensive Margins of South–South–North Trade: Firm-Level Evidence," Working Papers DP-2015-70, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    13. Rudra P. Pradhan, Mak B. Arvin, & Mahendhiran Nair, Jay Mittal, & Neville R. Norman, 2017. "Telecommunications infrastructure and usage and the FDI–growth nexus: evidence from Asian-21 countries "Abstract: This paper examines causal relationships between telecommunications infrastructur," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2032, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Wai Choi Lee & Tsun Se Cheong & Yanrui Wu & Jianxin Wu, 2019. "The Impacts of Financial Development, Urbanization, and Globalization on Income Inequality: A Regression-based Decomposition Approach," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(2), pages 126-141, Summer.
    15. Mounir Belloumi & Atef Alshehry, 2018. "The Impacts of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investments on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, March.
    16. A. Yasemin Yalta, 2011. "New Evidence on FDI-Led Growth: The Case of China," Working Papers 1107, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    17. Mohamed Abdouli and Sami Hammami, 2017. "Exploring Links between FDI Inflows, Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Further Evidence from MENA Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 95-117, March.
    18. Syed Ali Raza & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2018. "Influence of Systemic Banking Crises and Currency Crises on the FDI-Growth Nexus: Evidence from China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 572-589, June.
    19. M. Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2012. "Equipment investment, output and productivity in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 181-207, February.
    20. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Mr. Murtaza H Syed & Mr. Liu Xueyan, 2013. "China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth: Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency," IMF Working Papers 2013/083, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:13-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gripsjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.