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Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration

  • Razmi, Arslan

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Hernandez, Gonzalo

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

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    Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post-financial-crisis world can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades.

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    Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 329.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 05 Dec 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0329
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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
    2. Albert Park & Dean Yang & Xinzheng Shi & Yuan Jiang, 2006. "Exporting and Firm Performance: Chinese Exporters and the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 549, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    3. Razmi, Arslan, 2007. "Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 460-482, December.
    4. Wacziarg, Romain & Imbs, Jean, 2000. "Stages of Diversification," Research Papers 1653, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    5. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    6. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrere & Vanessa Strauss-Khan, 2011. "Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump?," Working Papers halshs-00553597, HAL.
    7. Renuka Mahadevan, 2007. "New Evidence on the Export-led Growth Nexus: A Case Study of Malaysia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7), pages 1069-1083, 07.
    8. Lall, Sanjaya, 1998. "Erratum: Exports of Manufactures by Developing Countries: Emerging Patterns of Trade and Location," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 168, Autumn.
    9. Adams , Charles & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of Global Imbalances: Perspective from Developing Asia," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 19-47.
    10. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    11. Canuto, Otaviano & Haddad, Mona & Hanson, Gordon, 2010. "Export-Led Growth v2.0," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 3, pages 1-5, March.
    12. Armando Silva & Ana Paula Africano & Óscar Afonso, 2010. "Learning-by-exporting: what we know and what we would like to know," FEP Working Papers 364, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    13. Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2003. "Exporting Raises Productivity in Sub-Saharan African Manufacturing Plants," NBER Working Papers 10020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Industry Differences in the Effect of Export Market Entry: Learning by Exporting?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 416-432, October.
    15. Lall, Sanjaya, 1998. "Exports of Manufactures by Developing Countries: Emerging Patterns of Trade and Location," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 54-73, Summer.
    16. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    17. De Loecker, Jan, 2007. "Do exports generate higher productivity? Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 69-98, September.
    18. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    19. Pedro Martins & Yong Yang, 2009. "The impact of exporting on firm productivity: a meta-analysis of the learning-by-exporting hypothesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 431-445, October.
    20. John Weiss, 2005. "Export Growth and Industrial Policy: Lessons from the East Asian Miracle Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 47618, Inter-American Development Bank.
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