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Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Arslan Razmi

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

  • Gonzalo Hernandez

Abstract

Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post-financial-crisis world, can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades. We find in particular that, among our variables of interest, the proportion of a country's manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries is the one most robustly associated with output growth. The results have implications for continued post-crisis growth in Asian developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Razmi & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2011. "Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration," Development Economics Working Papers 23207, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:develo:23207
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    Cited by:

    1. Eu Chye Tan & Chor Foon Tang, 2016. "Economic Growth Of Selected East Asian Countries: A Macroeconomic View Of Their Dependence On The Us And Europe," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(05), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Fassil Eshetu & Degye Goshu, 2021. "Determinants of Ethiopian Coffee Exports to Its Major Trade Partners: A Dynamic Gravity Model Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(2), pages 185-196, May.
    3. Mukesh Kumar & Nargis & Azeema Begam, 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Burak Erkut & Gagan Deep Sharma, 2023. "Financial integration in Asia: new Empirical evidence using dynamic panel data estimations," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 213-231, February.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & You, Kefei & Chen, Lei, 2019. "Global and regional stock market integration in Asia: A panel convergence approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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