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Processing trade, exchange rates and China's bilateral trade balances

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  • Xing, Yuqing

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of processing trade in China's bilateral trade balances and the impact of the yuan's appreciation on China's processing trade. The analysis is based on panel data covering bilateral processing trade between China and its partners from 1993 to 2008. The empirical results show that: (1) processing trade accounted for 100% of China's annual trade surplus during the period; (2) China's processing trade showed a significant regional bias—77% of processing imports originated from East Asia while only 29% of processing exports was destined to the region in 2008; and (3) a real appreciation of the yuan would negatively affect both processing imports and exports—specifically, a 10% real appreciation of the yuan would reduce not only China's processing exports by 9.1% but also its processing imports by 5.0%. Based on these empirical findings we conclude that the combined effect of the yuan's appreciation on the balance of processing trade and thus China's overall trade balance will be limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing, Yuqing, 2012. "Processing trade, exchange rates and China's bilateral trade balances," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 540-547.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:540-547
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2012.06.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing, Yuqing, 2014. "Measuring Value Added in the People’s Republic of China’s Exports: A Direct Approach," ADBI Working Papers 493, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Furukawa, Yuichi, 2013. "A Simple Theory of Offshoring and Reshoring," MPRA Paper 44557, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2013.
    3. Yuqing Xing, 2016. "Global Value Chains and China's Exports to High-income Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 191-203, June.
    4. Lili Yan ING & Miaojie YU, 2015. "Intensive and Extensive Margins of South–South–North Trade: Firm-Level Evidence," Working Papers DP-2015-70, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    5. Angus Chu & Guido Cozzi & Yuichi Furukawa, 2015. "Effects of Economic Development in China on Skill-Biased Technical Change in the US," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 227-242, April.
    6. Yao Amber Li & Jenny Xu & Carol Zhao Chen, 2015. "Import Response to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Micro-level Investigation," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2015-27, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised May 2015.
    7. repec:era:wpaper:dp-2015-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Xing, Yuqing, 2012. "The People’s Republic of China’s High-tech Exports: Myth and Reality," ADBI Working Papers 357, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. THORBECKE, Willem, 2014. "Rebalancing Trade within East Asian Supply Chains," Discussion papers 14002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Willem Thorbecke, 2013. "Investigating China's Disaggregated Processed Exports: Evidence that Both the RMB and Exchange Rates in Supply Chain Countries Matter," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1245-1260, October.
    11. Yusuf Tuna & Yunus Ozcan, 2015. "Bilateral Trade: Turkey and China," The Journal of European Theoretical and Applied Studies, The Center for European Studies at Kirklareli University - Turkey, vol. 3(2), pages 57-73.
    12. repec:eee:chieco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:87-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2014. "How FDI influences the triangular trade pattern among China, East Asia and the U.S.? A CGE analysis of the sector of Electronics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 77-88.
    14. Li, Fangyi & Song, Zhouying & Liu, Weidong, 2014. "China's energy consumption under the global economic crisis: Decomposition and sectoral analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 193-202.
    15. Schröder, Marcel, 2017. "Mercantilism and China's hunger for international reserves," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 15-33.
    16. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.
    17. Yuqing Xing & Manisha Pradhananga, 2013. "How Important is Exports and FDI for China's Economic Growth?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-04, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

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    Keywords

    China; Processing trade; Exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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