How Would an Appreciation of the Yuan Affect the People's Republic of China's Surplus in Processing Trade?
Enormous trade surpluses are problematic for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the rest of the world. They primarily stem from processing trade. This paper investigates how exchange rate changes would affect the PRC's imports for processing and processed exports. The results indicate that an appreciation throughout East Asian supply chain countries would reduce the PRC's surplus in processing trade, while an appreciation of the yuan alone might not. Even for an appreciation throughout East Asia, however, the sum of the exchange rate elasticities is not large. Thus, to rebalance the PRC's trade, exchange rate appreciations must be accompanied by other changes such as factor market liberalization and greater enforcement of environmental regulations.
|Date of creation:||18 Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kasumigaseki Building 8F, 3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6008, Japan|
Fax: (81-3) 3593-5571
Web page: http://www.adbi.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006.
"The Return to Capital in China,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 61-102.
- Sarah Y. Tong & Yi Zheng, 2008. "China's Trade Acceleration and the Deepening of an East Asian Regional Production Network," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(1), pages 66-81.
- Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
- Shaghil Ahmed, 2009. "Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 987, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kaddour Hadri, 1999.
"Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data,"
1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
- Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
- Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, 02.
- Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Koivu, Tuuli, 2007. "Can the chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Bosworth, Barry & Collins, Susan M., 2010.
"Rebalancing the US Economy in a Postcrisis World,"
ADBI Working Papers
236, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jaime Marquez & John Schindler, 2007. "Exchange-rate Effects on China's Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 837-853, November.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marc Benger)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.