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The Time Series of the Cross Section of Asset Prices

  • Lior Menzly
  • Tano Santos
  • Pietro Veronesi
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    In this paper we propose a general equilibrium model that successfully reproduces the historical experience of the cross section of US stock prices as well as the realized history of the market portfolio. The model achieves this while addressing traditional concerns in the asset pricing literature: A high equity premium and volatility of returns, the long horizon predictability, and a low volatility of the risk free rate. The model combines a rich payoff structure with a habit persistence discount factor, which allows us to identify the effect on prices of idiosyncratic cash flow shocks versus business cycle components.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9217.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9217.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9217
    Note: AP
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
    3. repec:dgr:kubcen:199554 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Heien, Dale & Durham, Cathy, 1991. "A Test of the Habit Formation Hypothesis Using Household Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 189-99, May.
    5. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, 02.
    6. Karen E. Dynan, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences: Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 391-406, June.
    7. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    8. Martin Lettau & Harald Uhlig, 2000. "Can Habit Formation be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 79-99, January.
    9. Phillippe Weil, 1997. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1833, David K. Levine.
    10. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    12. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, 08.
    13. Wayne E. Ferson & George M. Constantinides, 1991. "Habit Persistence and Durability in Aggregate Consumption: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 3631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Detemple, Jerome B & Zapatero, Fernando, 1991. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy with Habit Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1633-57, November.
    15. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. " Industry Returns and the Fisher Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1595-1615, December.
    16. Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1989. "Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Volatility of Consumption and Wealth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 73-89.
    17. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2001. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    19. David A. Chapman, 1998. "Habit Formation and Aggregate Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1223-1230, September.
    20. Heaton, John, 1993. "The Interaction between Time-Nonseparable Preferences and Time Aggregation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 353-85, March.
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