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Who Dies? International Trade, Market Structure, and Industrial Restructuring

  • Andrew B. Bernard
  • J. Bradford Jensen

This paper examines the role of changing factor endowments in the growth and decline of industries and regions. The implications of an endowment-based Heckscher-Ohlin trade model for plant entry and exit are tested on 20 years of data for the entire US manufacturing sector. The trade model provides predictions for which industries will see growth through the positive net entry of plants. A multi-region version of the same model has predictions for which regions will see high turnover and net entry of plants. In a country such as the U.S. that is augmenting both its physical and human capital, the least capital-intensive, least skill-intensive industries are correctly predicted to have the lowest rate of net entry. In addition, increases in regional capital and skill intensity are associated with higher probabilities of shutdown, especially for plants in industries with low initial capital and skill intensities.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8327.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8327.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8327
Note: ITI
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  1. James Harrigan & Egon Zakrajsek, 2000. "Factor supplies and specialization in the world economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Peter K. Schott, 1999. "One Size Fits All? Specialization, Trade and Income Inequality," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm132, Yale School of Management.
  3. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November.
  4. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
  5. Gordon H. Hanson & Matthew J. Slaughter, 1999. "The Rybczynski Theorem, Factor-Price Equalization, and Immigration: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 7074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
  7. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J., 1989. "Variation In Producer Turnover Across U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 12-89-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  8. Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 1992. "Exit, selection, and the value of firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 621-653.
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