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Estimating the Customer-Level Demand for Electricity Under Real-Time Market Prices

  • Robert H. Patrick
  • Frank A. Wolak

This paper presents estimates of the customer-level demand for electricity by industrial and commercial customers purchasing electricity according to the half-hourly energy prices from the England and Wales (E&W) electricity market. These customers also face the possibility of a demand charge on their electricity consumption during the three half-hour periods that are coincident with E&W system peaks. Although energy charges are largely known by 4 PM the day prior to consumption, a fraction of the energy charge and the identity of the half-hour periods when demand charges occur are only known with certainty ex post of consumption. Four years of data from a Regional Electricity Company (REC) in the United Kingdom is used to quantify the half-hourly customer-level demands under this real-time pricing program. The econometric model developed and estimated here quantifies the extent of intertemporal substitution in electricity consumption across pricing periods within the day due to changes in all components of day-ahead E&W electricity prices, the level of the demand charge and the probability that a demand charge will be imposed. The results of this modeling framework can be used by distribution companies supplying consumers purchasing electricity according to real-time market prices to construct demand-side bids into a competitive electricity market. The paper closes with several examples of how this might be done.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8213.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8213
Note: IO EEE
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  1. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521314008 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. McElroy, Marjorie B, 1987. "Additive General Error Models for Production, Cost, and Derived Demand or Share Systems," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 737-57, August.
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  16. Patrick, Robert H., 1990. "Rate structure effects and regression parameter instability across time-of-use electricity pricing experiments," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 179-195, July.
  17. Burness, H Stuart & Patrick, Robert H, 1991. "Peak-Load Pricing with Continuous and Interdependent Demand," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 69-88, March.
  18. Diewert, W E, 1971. "An Application of the Shephard Duality Theorem: A Generalized Leontief Production Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 481-507, May-June.
  19. Jay Zarnikau, 1990. "Customer Responsiveness to Real-Time Pricing of Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 99-116.
  20. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell, 1998. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," NBER Working Papers 6463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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