IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25170.html

Household Debt and Recession in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Garber
  • Atif Mian
  • Jacopo Ponticelli
  • Amir Sufi

Abstract

Brazil experienced one of the most severe recessions in its history from 2014 to 2016. Following a pattern shown for previous economic downturns in other countries, the Brazilian recession was preceded by a substantial increase in household debt from 2003 to 2014. This study utilizes a novel individual level data set on household borrowing in order to provide details of the household debt boom. The data set allows for a decomposition of the rise in household debt by the type of debt and by the source of debt, and it allows for an analysis of the income of individuals taking on more debt during the boom. We conclude with an exploration of potential causes of the rise in household debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Garber & Atif Mian & Jacopo Ponticelli & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Household Debt and Recession in Brazil," NBER Working Papers 25170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25170
    Note: CF EFG IFM ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25170.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert, 2011. "International Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Countries: National and Global Determinants," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
    4. Jacopo Ponticelli & Leonardo S. Alencar, 2016. "Court Enforcement, Bank Loans, and Firm Investment: Evidence from a Bankruptcy Reform in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1365-1413.
    5. Martins, Bruno & Lundberg, Eduardo & Takeda, Tony, 2011. "Housing Finance in Brazil: Institutional Improvements and Recent Developments," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3742, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    8. Eduardo Luis Lundberg, 2011. "Bancos Oficiais e Crédito Direcionado – o que diferencia o mercado de crédito brasileiro?," Working Papers Series 258, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Bruno Martins & Eduardo Lundberg & Tony Takeda, 2011. "Housing Finance in Brazil: Institutional Improvements and Recent Developments," Research Department Publications 4730, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Tony Takeda & Paulo Evandro Dawid, 2013. "Um Estudo sobre Comportamento de Tomadores e Ofertantes no Mercado de Crédito," Working Papers Series 338, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Ilan Goldfajn & Katherine Hennings & Hélio Mori, 2003. "Brazil’s Financial System: Resilience to Shocks, no Currency Substitution, but Struggling to Promote Growth," Working Papers Series 75, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Christiano A. Coelho & João M.P. De Mello & Bruno Funchal, 2012. "The Brazilian Payroll Lending Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 925-934, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bertran, Maria Paula & Echeverry, David, 2021. "What is the size of credit card debt in Brazil? Reporting Thresholds, Interest Rates and Income Distribution," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    2. Filipe Correia & Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago C. Silva, 2021. "Is Corporate Credit Risk Propagated to Employees?," Working Papers Series 551, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Gabriel Garber & Atif Mian & Jacopo Ponticelli & Amir Sufi, 2020. "Government Banks, Household Debt, and Economic Downturns: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 538, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Rossi, Jose Luiz & Delmondes de Carvalho Rossi, Marina & Carvalho Cunha, Daniel, 2019. "Transmission of monetary policy through the wealth channel in Brazil: Does the type of asset matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 279-293.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Monica Singhania & Neha Saini, 2018. "Determinants of FPI in Developed and Developing Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 187-213, February.
    2. Fredy Gamboa‐Estrada, 2020. "The Determinants Of Private Capital Flows In Emerging Economies: The Role Of The Fed'S Unconventional Monetary Policy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 694-710, October.
    3. Hernandez-Vega, Marco, 2019. "Estimating Capital Flows To Emerging Market Economies With Heterogeneous Panels," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 2068-2088, July.
    4. Ning, Ye & Zhang, Lingxiang, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of short-term international capital flows in China: A Markov regime switching approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 193-203.
    5. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    6. Marco Bonomo & Ricardo Brito & Bruno Martins, 2014. "Macroeconomic and Financial Consequences of the After Crisis Government-Driven Credit Expansion in Brazil," Working Papers Series 378, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Lovchikova, Marina & Matschke, Johannes, 2024. "Capital controls and the global financial cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    10. Tricia Mangal & Day-Yang Liu, 2020. "The impact of economic freedom on foreign portfolio investments: The case of the Caricom single market and economy," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(2), pages 213-222, March.
    11. Hossfeld, Oliver & Pramor, Marcus, 2018. "Global liquidity and exchange market pressure in emerging market economies," Discussion Papers 05/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 969-1003, August.
    13. Alan M. M. Leal & Stefan D'Amato & Igor V. M. Viveiros, 2021. "Short and long-run relations between capital netflows and the differential of american and brazilian interest rates," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 629, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    14. Jerome H. Powell, . "Advanced economy monetary policy and emerging market economies," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Wishnu Mahraddika, 2021. "How effective is capital flow management? The Indonesian experience," Departmental Working Papers 2021-15, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    16. Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2016. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 36., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jul 2016.
    17. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    18. Kurul, Zühal, 2017. "Nonlinear relationship between institutional factors and FDI flows: Dynamic panel threshold analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 148-160.
    19. Rogelio V. Mercado, 2023. "Bilateral capital flows: Gravity, push and pull," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 36-63, April.
    20. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.