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Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity

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  • David Card

Abstract

This paper presents evidence on two aspects of strike activity associated with the renegotiation of union contracts: the effects of contract characteristics on dispute probabilities; and the effects of lagged strike outcomes on the incidence and duration of subsequent disputes. The empirical results show that strike probabilities are higher following a longer contract, and lower in limited reopening situations. Strike probabilities are also higher in summer and fall than in winter and spring. Finally, strike probabilities are significantly affected by lagged strike outcomes. Relative to a peaceful settlement, strike probabilities are 10 percentage points higher following a strike of two weeks or less, and 5 to 7 percentage points lower following a longer dispute.

Suggested Citation

  • David Card, 1987. "Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity," NBER Working Papers 2263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2263
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Card, David, 1988. "Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 147-176, April.
    2. repec:mes:challe:v:29:y:1986:i:5:p:52-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wayne Vroman, 1982. "Union Contracts and Money Wage Changes in U. S. Manufacturing Industries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(4), pages 571-594.
    4. Reder, Melvin W & Neumann, George R, 1980. "Conflict and Contract: The Case of Strikes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 867-886, October.
    5. Gunderson, Morley & Kervin, John & Reid, Frank, 1986. "Logit Estimates of Strike Incidence from Canadian Contract Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 257-276, April.
    6. Pencavel, John H, 1970. "An Investigation into Industrial Strike Activity in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 37(147), pages 239-256, August.
    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    8. Ashenfelter, Orley & Johnson, George E, 1969. "Bargaining Theory, Trade Unions, and Industrial Strike Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 35-49, March.
    9. David Card, 1986. "Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity," Working Papers 593, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    10. Siebert, W Stanley & Addison, John T, 1981. "Are Strikes Accidential?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 389-404, June.
    11. Tracy, Joseph S, 1986. "An Investigation into the Determinants of U.S. Strike Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 423-436, June.
    12. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    13. Martin J. Mauro, 1982. "Strikes as a Result of Imperfect Information," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 35(4), pages 522-538, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kyle Hyndman, 2004. "Status Quo Effects In Bargaining: An Empirical Analysis of OPEC," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 285, Econometric Society.
    2. Peter Cramton & Morley Gunderson & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "The Effect Of Collective Bargaining Legislation On Strikes And Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 475-487, August.
    3. Card, David, 1988. "Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 147-176, April.
    4. Miguel Malo & Nuria Sánchez-Sánchez, 2014. "The legal form of labour conflicts and their time persistence: an empirical analysis with a large firms’ panel," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 513-533, December.
    5. Kuhn, Peter & Gu, Wulong, 1999. "Learning in Sequential Wage Negotiations: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(1), pages 109-140, January.
    6. Kennan, John, 1995. "Repeated contract negotiations with private information," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-472, November.
    7. William H. Greene & Ana P. Martins, 2002. "Striking Features of the Labor Market," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2002/08, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    8. William H. Greene & Ana P. Martins, 2013. "Striking Features of the Labor Market: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 25-53.
    9. William H. Greene & Ana P. Martins, 2013. "Striking Features of the Labor Market: Theory," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 1-24.
    10. Lemke, Robert J., 2004. "Dynamic bargaining with action-dependent valuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 1847-1875, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium

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