IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22453.html

Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Dale W. Jorgenson
  • Mun S. Ho
  • Jon D. Samuels

Abstract

Labor quality growth captures the upgrading of the labor force through higher educational attainment and greater experience. We find that average levels of educational attainment of new entrants remain high, but will no longer continue to rise. Growing educational attainment will gradually disappear as a source of U.S. economic growth. We find that the investment boom of 1995-2000 drew many younger and less-educated workers into employment. Employment rates for these workers declined during the recovery of 2000-2007 and dropped further during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Based on estimates of labor quality growth, growth in total factor productivity, and growth in capital quality, we project labor productivity to grow at 1.3% per year. This implies a GDP growth rate of 1.8%.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Jon D. Samuels, 2016. "Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 22453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22453
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22453.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    2. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    3. Parker, Jonathan A. & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2015. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226268736, July.
    4. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), 2016. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226395746.
    5. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), 2016. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226395609, July.
    6. Acemoglu, Daron & Rogoff, Kenneth & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2009. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226002040, July.
    7. Parker, Jonathan A. & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2015. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226268873.
    8. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226490229.
    9. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Jing & Ho, Mun S. & Hu, Wenhao & Jorgenson, Dale, 2020. "Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Jiang, Min & Kim, Euijune, 2024. "Measuring the impacts of the two-child policy on industrial structure and economic growth in china using a CGE model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Han, Jong-Suk & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2020. "Demographic change, human capital, and economic growth in Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Zauresh Atakhanova, 2021. "Support services in the extractive industries and the role of innovation," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(1), pages 141-150, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Jon D. Samuels, 2017. "Educational Attainment and the Revival of US Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 23-60, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. S. Shumska, 2017. "Growth prospects of Ukrainian economy against the background of global trends," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 3, pages 7-30.
    4. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Elías Albagli & Mario Canales & Chad Syverson & Matías Tapia & Sergi Basco & David Lopez-Rodriguez & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2025. "House Prices and Misallocation: The Impact of the Collateral Channel on Productivity," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(665), pages 1-35.
    6. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    7. João Amador & Sónia Cabral & Rossana Mastrandrea & Franco Ruzzenenti, 2018. "Who’s Who in Global Value Chains? A Weighted Network Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1039-1059, November.
    8. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Samuels, Jon D., 2016. "The impact of information technology on postwar US economic growth," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 398-411.
    9. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    10. Ansgar H. Belke & Thomas U. Osowski, 2019. "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A Global VAR approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 54-93, February.
    11. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2018. "How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 679-702, September.
    12. Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2024. "Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 437-454, March.
    13. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
    14. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    15. Michael Donadelli & Vahid Mojtahed & Antonio Paradiso, 2015. "Technological Progress, Investment Frictions and Business Cycle: New Insights from a Neoclassical Growth Model," Working Papers LuissLab 15119, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    16. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    17. Cole, Stephen J. & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 627-650.
    18. Guonan Ma & Ivan Roberts & Gerard Kelly, 2016. "A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Fabiano Schivardi & Tom Schmitz, 2020. "The IT Revolution and Southern Europe’s Two Lost Decades [Lack of Selection and Limits to Delegation: Firm Dynamics in Developing Countries]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2441-2486.
    20. John A. Romley & Abe Dunn & Dana Goldman & Neeraj Sood, 2020. "Quantifying Productivity Growth in the Delivery of Important Episodes of Care within the Medicare Program Using Insurance Claims and Administrative Data," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 297-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.