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Adverse Selection and Switching Costs in Health Insurance Markets: When Nudging Hurts

  • Benjamin R. Handel
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    This paper investigates consumer switching costs in the context of health insurance markets, where adverse selection is a potential concern. Though previous work has studied these phenomena in isolation, they interact in a way that directly impacts market outcomes and consumer welfare. Our identification strategy leverages a unique natural experiment that occurred at a large firm where we also observe individual-level panel data on health insurance choices and medical claims. We present descriptive results to show that (i) switching costs are large and (ii) adverse selection is present. To formalize this analysis we develop and estimate a choice model that jointly quantifies switching costs, risk preferences, and ex ante health risk. We use these estimates to study the welfare impact of an information provision policy that nudges consumers toward better decisions by reducing switching costs. This policy increases welfare in a naive setting where insurance plan prices are held fixed. However, when insurance prices change endogenously to reflect updated enrollee risk pools, the same policy substantially exacerbates adverse selection and reduces consumer welfare, doubling the existing welfare loss from adverse selection.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17459.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17459.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2011
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    Publication status: published as “Adverse Selection and Inertia in Health Insurance Markets: When Nudging Hurts.” http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~bhandel/wp/Handel_ASIN_2013.pdf American Economic Review, vol. 103(7), 2013, 2643-2682 (lead article)
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17459
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    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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    1. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Stephen Ryan & Paul Schrimpf & Mark Cullen, 2011. "Selection on Moral Hazard in Health Insurance," Discussion Papers 10-027, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Laibson, David I. & Gabaix, Xavier, 2006. "Shrouded Attributes, Consumer Myopia, and Information Suppression in Competitive Markets," Scholarly Articles 4554333, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Zeckhauser, Richard Jay & Cutler, David M. & Lincoln, Bryan, 2009. "Selection Stories: Understanding Movement Across Health Plans," Scholarly Articles 4449102, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Hanming Fang & Michael P. Keane & Dan Silverman, 2006. "Sources of Advantageous Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Insurance Market," NBER Working Papers 12289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Chandra, Amitabh & Gruber, Jonathan & McKnight, Robin, 2009. "Patient Cost-Sharing and Hospitalization Offsets in the Elderly," Scholarly Articles 8058412, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    6. M. Kate Bundorf & Jonathan D. Levin & Neale Mahoney, 2008. "Pricing and Welfare in Health Plan Choice," NBER Working Papers 14153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Amit Gandhi & Bernard Salanie & Francois Salanie, 2009. "Identifying Preferences under Risk from Discrete Choices," LERNA Working Papers 09.11.287, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    8. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    9. Strombom, Bruce A. & Buchmueller, Thomas C. & Feldstein, Paul J., 2002. "Switching costs, price sensitivity and health plan choice," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 89-116, January.
    10. B. Douglas Bernheim & Antonio Rangel, 2008. "Beyond Revealed Preference: Choice Theoretic Foundations for Behavioral Welfare Economics," NBER Working Papers 13737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Jonathan Levin, 2009. "Beyond Testing: Empirical Models of Insurance Markets," NBER Working Papers 15241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2006. "Testing for Asymmetric Information Using 'Unused Observables' in Insurance Markets: Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," NBER Working Papers 12112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Cardon, James H & Hendel, Igal, 2001. "Asymmetric Information in Health Insurance: Evidence from the National Medical Expenditure Survey," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(3), pages 408-27, Autumn.
    14. Matthew Shum, 2004. "Does Advertising Overcome Brand Loyalty? Evidence from the Breakfast-Cereals Market," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 241-272, 06.
    15. Amanda E. Kowalski, 2012. "Estimating the Tradeoff Between Risk Protection and Moral Hazard with a Nonlinear Budget Set Model of Health Insurance," NBER Working Papers 18108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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