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Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Perfect Foresight: A Symmetric Two Country Analysis

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  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of anticipated and unanticipated domestic monetary and fiscal expansions on both the domestic and foreign economies. The analysis is based on symmetric behavior, which is not only not an unreasonable first approximation, but also offers significant analytical advantages. Specifically, it enables the dynamics of the system to be decoupled into (a) averages and (b) differences of relevant variables. Not only does this render the analysis tractable, but it also helps provide economic insight. One striking aspect is that the differences, but not the averages, respond to announcements. The consequences of this for the dynamic adjustments of the two economies to the various disturbances are discussed at length.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1985. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Perfect Foresight: A Symmetric Two Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 1699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1699
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    1. Buiter,Willem H. & Marston,Richard C., 1986. "International Economic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521337809.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
    3. Marcus Miller & Mark Salmon, 1985. "Policy Coordination and Dynamic Games," NBER Chapters,in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 184-227 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hamada, Koichi & Sakurai, Makoto, 1978. "International Transmission of Stagflation under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 877-895, October.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Gray, Malcolm R & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1979. "The Stability of Exchange Rate Dynamics under Perfect Myopic Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 643-660, October.
    7. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Gray, Jo Anna, 1985. "Monetary Policy Games and the Consequences of Non-cooperative Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 547-564, October.
    8. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "International Policy Coordination in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Chapters,in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 274-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clausen, Volker & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Large Asymmetric Monetary Union - A Dynamic Three-Country Analysis," Economics Working Papers 2005-18, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Offick Sven & Wohltmann Hans-Werner, 2016. "Partially Anticipated Monetary Policy Shocks – Are They Stabilizing or Destabilizing?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(1), pages 95-127, February.
    3. van der Ploeg, F., 1989. "Monetary disinflation, fiscal expansion and the current account in an interdependent world," Discussion Paper 1989-18, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Dynamische Effekte der Geld-und Fiskalpolitik in einem asymmetrischen Drei-Länder-Modell mit einer Währungsunion," Economics Working Papers 2005-19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    5. 深尾, 京司, 2002. "黒字大国終焉論の誤解," Discussion Paper 97, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & van Moorsel, Cornelie, 2001. "Internal and external transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 127-148, June.
    7. Levin, Jay H., 1997. "Stabilization policy, exchange rate expectations, and international transmission," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-40, February.
    8. Caroline Schmidt, 2006. "International transmission effects of monetary policy shocks: can asymmetric price setting explain the stylized facts?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 205-218.
    9. repec:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s12197-016-9358-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Clausen, Volker & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Monetary and fiscal policy dynamics in an asymmetric monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 139-167, February.
    11. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Basar, Tamer & d'Orey, Vasco, 1988. "Dynamic Strategic Monetary Policies and Coordination in Interdependent Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 341-361, June.
    12. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2005. "Oil Price Shocks and Currency Denomination," Economics Working Papers 2005-10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    13. J.C. Engwerda & B. Aarle & J.E.J. Plasmans, 1999. "The (in)finite horizon open‐loop Nash LQ game:An application to EMU," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 88(0), pages 251-273, January.
    14. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2005. "Dynamic Effects of Raw Materials Price Shocks for Large Oil-Dependent Economies," Economics Working Papers 2005-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    15. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    16. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2005. "Monetary Policy Dynamics in Large Oil-Dependent Economies," Economics Working Papers 2005-17, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

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