IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/16308.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields

Author

Listed:
  • Michael J. Roberts
  • Wolfram Schlenker

Abstract

Extreme heat is the single best predictor of corn and soybean yields in the United States. While average yields have risen continuously since World War II, we find no evidence that relative tolerance to extreme heat has improved between 1950 and 2005. Climate change forecasts project a sharp increase in extreme heat by the end of the century, with the potential to significantly reduce yields under current technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2010. "Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields," NBER Working Papers 16308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16308
    Note: EEE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16308.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    2. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2011. "The Evolution of Heat Tolerance of Corn: Implications for Climate Change," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 225-251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    4. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    5. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
    6. Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Roseboom, Johannes, 1998. "Financing agricultural research: International investment patterns and policy perspectives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1057-1071, June.
    7. Nancy T. Gallini & Brian D. Wright, 1990. "Technology Transfer under Asymmetric Information," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(1), pages 147-160, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Neal & Michael Keane, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: The Roles of Adaptation Techniques and Emissions Reductions," Discussion Papers 2018-08, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Barrows, Geoffrey & Sexton, Steven & Zilberman, David, 2014. "The impact of agricultural biotechnology on supply and land-use," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 676-703, December.
    3. Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska & Bretford Griffin, 2019. "The Impacts of Economic, Demographic, and Weather Factors on the Exit of Beginning Farmers in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce McCarl, 2014. "How is CO 2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 747-762, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cui, Xiaomeng, 2020. "Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. García-León, David, 2015. "Weather and Income: Lessons from the Main European Regions," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 202979, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 105-124.
    4. Marini, Annalisa, 2020. "The Impact of Weather on Commodity Prices: A Warning for the Future," MPRA Paper 104572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Meyer, Kevin & Keiser, David A., 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change Through Tile Drainage: A Structural Ricardian Analysis," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235932, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Massetti, Emanuele & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2017. "Do Temperature Thresholds Threaten American Farmland?," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 263482, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Meyer, Kevin Michael, 2017. "Three essays on environmental and resource economics," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006585, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Zeynep K. Hansen & Gary D. Libecap & Scott E. Lowe, 2011. "Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 253-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carlo Fezzi & Ian Bateman, 2015. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Nonlinear Effects and Aggregation Bias in Ricardian Models of Farmland Values," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 57-92.
    10. Yun, Seong Do & Gramig, Benjamin M & Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2015. "Does Spatial Correlation Matter in Econometric Models of Crop Yield Response and Weather?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205465, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Kaixing Huang, 2015. "The Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture: the Role of Adaptation," School of Economics Working Papers 2015-20, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    12. Yoro Diallo & Sébastien Marchand & Etienne Espagne, 2019. "Impacts of extreme events on technical efficiency in Vietnamese agriculture," CIRED Working Papers halshs-02080285, HAL.
    13. Allan, Corey & Kerr, Suzi, 2013. "Examining Patterns in and Drivers of Rural Land Values," 2013 Conference, August 28-30, 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand 160191, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    14. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.
    15. Graff Zivin, Joshua & Song, Yingquan & Tang, Qu & Zhang, Peng, 2020. "Temperature and high-stakes cognitive performance: Evidence from the national college entrance examination in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Solomon Hsiang & Paulina Oliva & Reed Walker, 2019. "The Distribution of Environmental Damages," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103.
    17. Martina Bozzola & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn & Fabian Capitanio, 2018. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Italian agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 57-79.
    18. David Albouy & Walter Graf & Ryan Kellogg & Hendrik Wolff, 2016. "Climate Amenities, Climate Change, and American Quality of Life," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 205-246.
    19. Chen, Zhangliang & Dall'Erba, Sandy, 2018. "Drought, Domestic Trade And Agricultural Profit: Theory And Evidence," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274397, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Steven Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2017. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 725-760, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.