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The financial cost of stabilizing US farm income under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Rémi Generoso

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The paper assesses the financial cost of federal farm programs in mitigating income losses due to drier conditions expected from climate change. Our study encompasses agricultural-producing counties within the conterminous United States during the census years from 2002 to 2017. We quantify historical drought patterns and their projected trends for the near (2020-2049) and more distant (2030-2059) future, using climate reanalysis data and 20 downscaled global circulation model products from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We estimate the relationship between federal agricultural payments and climate change by analyzing how farm income losses due to drier conditions affect the magnitude and distribution of these payments under the RCP 8.5 scenario. We predict that, under unmitigated climate change, payments from federal farm program should significantly increase to maintain their income–stabilization capacity, with a greater likelihood

Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Couharde & Rémi Generoso, 2023. "The financial cost of stabilizing US farm income under climate change," Working Papers hal-04159823, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04159823
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04159823
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    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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