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Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields

In: The Design and Implementation of U.S. Climate Policy

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  • Michael J. Roberts
  • Wolfram Schlenker

Abstract

Extreme heat is the single best predictor of corn and soybean yields in the United States. While average yields have risen continuously since World War II, we find no evidence that relative tolerance to extreme heat has improved between 1950 and 2005. Climate change forecasts project a sharp increase in extreme heat by the end of the century, with the potential to significantly reduce yields under current technologies.
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Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2011. "Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields," NBER Chapters,in: The Design and Implementation of U.S. Climate Policy, pages 271-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12162
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2011. "The Evolution of Heat Tolerance of Corn: Implications for Climate Change," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 225-251 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 753-771.
    3. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 354-385.
    4. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 2265-2295.
    5. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 113-125.
    6. Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Roseboom, Johannes, 1998. "Financing agricultural research: International investment patterns and policy perspectives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1057-1071, June.
    7. Nancy T. Gallini & Brian D. Wright, 1990. "Technology Transfer under Asymmetric Information," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, pages 147-160.
    8. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 113-125.
    9. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 2265-2295.
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    Cited by:

    1. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce McCarl, 2014. "How is CO 2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 747-762, June.
    2. Barrows, Geoffrey & Sexton, Steven & Zilberman, David, 2014. "The impact of agricultural biotechnology on supply and land-use," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 676-703, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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