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Spring Precipitation, Delayed Planting, and Farmer Adaptation in Midwestern Soybean Production

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  • Tian, Guang
  • Conley, Shawn
  • Naeve, Seth
  • Mitchell, Paul

Abstract

Excessive precipitation in the spring season can lead to costly planting delays. This study quantifies yield losses from delayed soybean planting in the U.S. Midwest due to excessive spring precipitation and examines the extent to which farmers mitigate these losses through adaptive management. Using novel county-level planting progress data spanning 2000–2020, we construct a comprehensive panel dataset combining weather and yield data across 979 counties. To address endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variable approach using exogenous precipitation shocks during the planting season. Our results indicate that each additional day of delayed Midwestern soybean planting reduces soybean yields, on average, by approximately 1.6% of the total, while farmers’ adaptive responses mitigate 36% of this loss. These findings underscore the importance of the impact of delayed planting on yields and farmers’ adaptive behaviors when assessing weather-related yield loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian, Guang & Conley, Shawn & Naeve, Seth & Mitchell, Paul, 2025. "Spring Precipitation, Delayed Planting, and Farmer Adaptation in Midwestern Soybean Production," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361173, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:361173
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.361173
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