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Prescription Drugs, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics

Author

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  • Zhou Yang
  • Donna B. Gilleskie
  • Edward C. Norton

Abstract

There is much debate about whether the Medicare Prescription Drug Bill -- the greatest expansion of Medicare benefits since its creation in 1965 -- will improve the health of elderly Americans, and how much it will cost. We model how insurance affects medical care utilization, and subsequently, health outcomes over time in a dynamic model with correlated errors. Longitudinal individual-level data from the 1992-1998 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey provide estimates of these effects. Simulations over five years show that expanding prescription drug coverage would increase drug expenditures by between 12% and 17%. However, other health care expenditures would only increase slightly, and the mortality rate would improve.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou Yang & Donna B. Gilleskie & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Prescription Drugs, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10964
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gowrisankaran Gautam & Town Robert & Barrette Eric, 2011. "Managed Care, Drug Benefits and Mortality: An Analysis of the Elderly," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-32, January.
    2. John R. Moran & JKosali Ilayperuma Simon, 2006. "Income and the Use of Prescription Drugs by the Elderly: Evidence from the Notch Cohorts," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    3. Florian Heiss & Daniel McFadden & Joachim Winter, 2010. "Mind the Gap! Consumer Perceptions and Choices of Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans," NBER Chapters, in: Research Findings in the Economics of Aging, pages 413-481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Avi Dor & William Encinosa, 2010. "How Does Cost‐Sharing Affect Drug Purchases? Insurance Regimes in the Private Market for Prescription Drugs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 545-574, September.
    5. Martin Gaynor & Jian Li & William B. Vogt, 2006. "Is Drug Coverage a Free Lunch? Cross-Price Elasticities and the Design of Prescription Drug Benefits," NBER Working Papers 12758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert Kaestner & Nasreen Khan, 2010. "Medicare Part D and its Effect on the Use of Prescription Drugs, Use of Other Health Care Services and Health of the Elderly," NBER Working Papers 16011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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