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Are business cycles in the US and emerging economies synchronized?

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Abstract

In this study, we use the tools of cross-spectral analysis and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) modelling to investigate whether there exists a significant link between the movement of the cyclical component of real GDP in developed and emerging economies. Specifically, we look at the United States and six emerging countries: Brazil, Chile, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Singapore. The simple answer to the question posed in the title of our article is no. Our results indicate that there exists no significant relationship between cyclical fluctuations in the US and emerging countries at business cycle frequencies. Although a statistically and economically significant link is detected in the past decade (the 2000s), it seems that it reflects mostly the severity of the 2008-2009 recession and its effects reverberating throughout the globe rather than a structural convergence between the developed and emerging world which could be expected to persist into the future. In general, both spectral methods and SVAR models suggest that over a long horizon, GDP cycles in the US and the emerging countries are not related.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Krupa & Paweł Skrzypczyński, 2012. "Are business cycles in the US and emerging economies synchronized?," NBP Working Papers 111, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcelo Sánchez, 2010. "What Drives Business Cycles and International Trade in Emerging Market Economies?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(61), pages 198-271, August.
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    6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 293-303, June.
    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
    8. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2007. "What drives business cycles and international trade in emerging market economies?," Working Paper Series 730, European Central Bank.
    9. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    10. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Olaf Sleijpen, 2002. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 23-42, March.
    11. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehdi Bhoury & Mohamed Slim Mouha, 2015. "Characteristics of the Tunisian Business Cycle and its International Synchronization," IHEID Working Papers 16-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles synchronization; time series filtering; cross-spectral analysis; SVAR models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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