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What Drives Business Cycles And International Trade In Emerging Market Economies?

  • MARCELO SÁNCHEZ

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    This paper investigates the role of domestic and externalfactors in explaining business cycle and internationaltrade developments in fifteen emergingmarket economies. Results from sign-restrictedVARs show that developments in real output, inflationand international trade variables are dominatedby domestic shocks. External shocks, on average, explaina fraction of no more than 10% of the variationin the endogenous variables considered. Concerningimpulse responses, consumer prices and real importsare overall the endogenous variables most affected bydomestic disturbances. Consumer prices are mostlydriven by technology and risk premium shocks. Theshocks inducing the largest effects tend to be monetarydisturbances, which can be traced to unpredictablemonetary policy. These shocks generate relativelylarge impacts on real imports, which -owing tomuted reactions in real exports-, carry over to thetrade balance, alongside more modest changes inconsumer prices and real output.

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/espe_061-6.pdf
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    Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 61 (August)
    Pages: 198-271

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000107:008324
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