Establishing Fault: The Electoral Impact of Induced Earthquakes

Political science has used natural disasters to study whether voters are sensitive to the environment. The complex nature of disasters, however, can present obstacles to causal identification. In this study, we look at a uniquely and overtly human-caused disaster—earthquakes from natural gas drilling in the Netherlands—to see whether these disasters persuade citizens to vote more environmentally. We combine polling station-level voting data with precisely calculated measures of earthquake impact, and we find that pro-environmental party vote share is generally higher in affected locations. These findings provide further support for the theory that environmental damage strengthens the preference for green parties, a relationship that will only become more important as human destruction of the environment worsens.