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Politics under the Weather: Droughts, Parties and Electoral Outcomes

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  • Paulo Bastos

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  • Sebastian Miller

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Abstract

The increased occurrence of extreme weather conditions leading to drought is a key development challenge. This paper studies how these extreme events interact with the political process at the local level using rich administrative data for drought declarations and mayoral elections in Brazil. While accounting for current and historical rainfall patterns, the paper finds that that: i) municipalities led by a mayor affiliated with the President’s party are more likely to receive formal drought declarations prior to the municipal election; and ii) receiving a drought declaration reinforces the electoral advantage of incumbent mayors running for reelection. These results are robust to the inclusion of a rich set of controls for municipal attributes.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Bastos & Sebastian Miller, 2013. "Politics under the Weather: Droughts, Parties and Electoral Outcomes," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-455, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-455
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Locatelli & Paulina Aldunce & Abigaïl Fallot & Jean-François Le Coq & Eric Sabourin & Jeimar Tapasco, 2017. "Research on Climate Change Policies and Rural Development in Latin America: Scope and Gaps," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Bedran-Martins, Ana Maria & Lemos, Maria Carmen, 2017. "Politics of drought under Bolsa Família program in Northeast Brazil," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 7, pages 15-21.
    3. Mauricio A. Vela & Sebastián J. Miller, 2014. "Is Disaster Risk Reduction Spending Driven by the Occurrence of Natural Disasters? Evidence from Peru," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 84713, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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