Intégration économique et agglomération des activités industrielles dans le Mercosur, les enseignements d'un modèle d'économie géographique
After ten years, the Mercosur seems to be the most successful integration process in Latin America. However, its development remains imperfect due to asymmetric situations between the countries. Brazil is the regional industrial block and the integration process would lead his partners to become captive markets and to see their domestic industrial production decrease.In order to analyze the possibility of such scenario, we adopt a New Economic Geography modelwith three regions and asymmetries. Its serves as a support to numerical simulations of trade liberalization in Mercosur. We show a redeployment of industrial activities from Brazil to Argentina, witch has the best differential of productivity, and may appear to be the new regional industrial block in the end of integration process. An empirical verification is donewith a Grubel-Lloyd indicator upon trade flows within Mercosur. It confirms largely theconclusions of the theoretical model. (Full text in French)
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