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Dynamic dual process account explaining the bias after outcome – An exploratory research on memory distortion hindsight bias

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  • Sheng, Liang

Abstract

When people attempt to recall their pre-feedback estimation of a general knowledge question, they are often biased toward the feedback. This is portrayed as hindsight bias (HB) memory distortion type. The current study is a theory-driven exploratory research that aims to discover the fundamental underlying mechanisms of such bias. Experiment 1 and 2 confirm and verify the appropriate interference task and depletion procedure used for the main experiments. Experiment 3 applies the depletion procedure on the HB memory paradigm and finds a descriptive increasing trend of HB after depletion. Experiment 4 combines the labeling effect (within-subjects manipulation) and depletion procedure on HB and further confirms the result of experiment 3. A single-dissociation pattern of HB magnitude after depletion with different labeling conditions is obtained, indicating a dynamic dual-process mechanism underlying HB, with knowledge-updating behavior and interference resistance action as the two controlled and flexible processes yielding HB. Results of HB are obtained from both traditional inference analyses and the multinomial modeling analyses. Comparisons are discussed demonstrating the superiority of the latter analyzing method applying HB.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng, Liang, 2015. "Dynamic dual process account explaining the bias after outcome – An exploratory research on memory distortion hindsight bias," Working Papers 39948, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnh:wpaper:39948
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Werth, Lioba & Strack, Fritz & Forster, Jens, 2002. "Certainty and Uncertainty: The Two Faces of the Hindsight Bias," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 323-341, March.
    2. Pohl, Rudiger F. & Hell, Wolfgang, 1996. "No Reduction in Hindsight Bias after Complete Information and Repeated Testing," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 49-58, July.
    3. Pieters, Rik & Baumgartner, Hans & Bagozzi, Richard, 2006. "Biased memory for prior decision making: Evidence from a longitudinal field study," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 34-48, January.
    4. Fessel, Florian & Epstude, Kai & Roese, Neal J., 2009. "Hindsight bias redefined: It's about time," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 56-64, September.
    5. Christensen-Szalanski, Jay J. J. & Willham, Cynthia Fobian, 1991. "The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 147-168, February.
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    Keywords

    Hindsight Bias ; Depletion ; Interference ; Knowledge updating;
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