IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/wpaper/39948.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic dual process account explaining the bias after outcome – An exploratory research on memory distortion hindsight bias

Author

Listed:
  • Sheng, Liang

Abstract

When people attempt to recall their pre-feedback estimation of a general knowledge question, they are often biased toward the feedback. This is portrayed as hindsight bias (HB) memory distortion type. The current study is a theory-driven exploratory research that aims to discover the fundamental underlying mechanisms of such bias. Experiment 1 and 2 confirm and verify the appropriate interference task and depletion procedure used for the main experiments. Experiment 3 applies the depletion procedure on the HB memory paradigm and finds a descriptive increasing trend of HB after depletion. Experiment 4 combines the labeling effect (within-subjects manipulation) and depletion procedure on HB and further confirms the result of experiment 3. A single-dissociation pattern of HB magnitude after depletion with different labeling conditions is obtained, indicating a dynamic dual-process mechanism underlying HB, with knowledge-updating behavior and interference resistance action as the two controlled and flexible processes yielding HB. Results of HB are obtained from both traditional inference analyses and the multinomial modeling analyses. Comparisons are discussed demonstrating the superiority of the latter analyzing method applying HB.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng, Liang, 2015. "Dynamic dual process account explaining the bias after outcome – An exploratory research on memory distortion hindsight bias," Working Papers 39948, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnh:wpaper:39948
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/39948/1/Liang%20Sheng%20dissertation.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Werth, Lioba & Strack, Fritz & Forster, Jens, 2002. "Certainty and Uncertainty: The Two Faces of the Hindsight Bias," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 323-341, March.
    2. Pohl, Rudiger F. & Hell, Wolfgang, 1996. "No Reduction in Hindsight Bias after Complete Information and Repeated Testing," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 49-58, July.
    3. Pieters, Rik & Baumgartner, Hans & Bagozzi, Richard, 2006. "Biased memory for prior decision making: Evidence from a longitudinal field study," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 34-48, January.
    4. Fessel, Florian & Epstude, Kai & Roese, Neal J., 2009. "Hindsight bias redefined: It's about time," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 56-64, September.
    5. Christensen-Szalanski, Jay J. J. & Willham, Cynthia Fobian, 1991. "The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 147-168, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hindsight Bias ; Depletion ; Interference ; Knowledge updating;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:wpaper:39948. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Katharina Rautenberg). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fvmande.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.