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Hindsight Bias and Individual Risk Attitude within the Context of Experimental Asset Markets

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  • Boris Maciejovsky

    ()

  • Tarek El-Sehitya
  • Hans Haumerb
  • Christian Helmensteinc
  • Erich Kirchlerd

Abstract

This paper investigates (i) the robustness of hindsight bias in experimental asset markets, (ii) the time invariance of the different experimental risk elicitation methods of certainty equivalents and binary lottery choices, and (iii) their correspondence. The results of our within-subjects approach with 133 traders do not support the conjecture that hindsight bias is a general phenomenon. Furthermore, our findings challenge the presumption of time-stable risk preferences and of procedural invariance with respect to different experimental risk elicitation methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Maciejovsky & Tarek El-Sehitya & Hans Haumerb & Christian Helmensteinc & Erich Kirchlerd, "undated". "Hindsight Bias and Individual Risk Attitude within the Context of Experimental Asset Markets," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-16, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:esi:discus:2002-16
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    File URL: ftp://papers.econ.mpg.de/esi/discussionpapers/2002-16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dennis Dittrich & Werner Guth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 471-491.
    2. Brennan, M J, 1995. "The Individual Investor," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 59-74, Spring.
    3. Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris & Weber, Martin, 0000. "Framing Effects on Asset Markets - An Experimental Analysis -," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-09, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. Fellner, Gerlinde & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2007. "Risk attitude and market behavior: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 338-350, June.
    5. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Rieck, Christian & Theissen, Erik, 1997. "Inferring risk attitudes from certainty equivalents: Some lessons from an experimental study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 469-486, September.
    6. Myagkov, Mikhail & Plott, Charles R, 1997. "Exchange Economies and Loss Exposure: Experiments Exploring Prospect Theory and Competitive Equilibria in Market Environments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 801-828, December.
    7. Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2002. "Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 65-85, July.
    8. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Rieck, Christian & Theissen, Erik, 1997. "Messung individueller Risikoeinstellungen," CFS Working Paper Series 1997/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Stahlberg, Dagmar & Eller, Frank & Maass, Anne & Frey, Dieter, 1995. "We Knew It All Along: Hindsight Bias in Groups," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 46-58, July.
    10. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    11. Creyer, Elizabeth & William T., Jr. Ross, 1993. "Hindsight Bias and Inferences in Choice: The Mediating Effect of Cognitive Effort," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 61-77, June.
    12. Rietz, Thomas A, 1993. "Implementing and Testing Risk-Preference-Induction Mechanisms in Experimental Sealed-Bid Auctions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 199-213, October.
    13. Cox, James C & Smith, Vernon L & Walker, James M, 1985. "Experimental Development of Sealed-Bid Auction Theory: Calibrating Controls for Risk Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 160-165, May.
    14. Werner F. M. De Bondt & Richard H. Thaler, 1994. "Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Weber, Martin & Keppe, Hans-Jurgen & Meyer-Delius, Gabriela, 2000. "The impact of endowment framing on market prices -- an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 159-176, February.
    16. Christensen-Szalanski, Jay J. J. & Willham, Cynthia Fobian, 1991. "The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 147-168, February.
    17. Reinhard Selten & Abdolkarim Sadrieh & Klaus Abbink, 1999. "Money Does Not Induce Risk Neutral Behavior, but Binary Lotteries Do even Worse," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 213-252, June.
    18. Walker, James M & Smith, Vernon L & Cox, James C, 1990. "Inducing Risk-Neutral Preferences: An Examination in a Controlled Market Environment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-24, March.
    19. Camerer, Colin & Loewenstein, George & Weber, Martin, 1989. "The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1232-1254, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barasinska, Nataliya & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2012. "Individual Risk Attitudes and the Composition of Financial Portfolios: Evidence from German Household Portfolios," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 1-14.
    2. Fellner, Gerlinde & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2007. "Risk attitude and market behavior: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 338-350, June.
    3. Erich Kirchler & Boris Maciejovsky & Martin Weber, 2010. "Framing Effects, Selective Information and Market Behavior: An Experimental Analysis," Chapters,in: Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hindsight bias; Risk attitude; Financial markets; Experimental economics; Behavioral finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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