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The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis

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  • Christensen-Szalanski, Jay J. J.
  • Willham, Cynthia Fobian

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  • Christensen-Szalanski, Jay J. J. & Willham, Cynthia Fobian, 1991. "The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 147-168, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:48:y:1991:i:1:p:147-168
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    1. Davis, James H., 1992. "Some compelling intuitions about group consensus decisions, theoretical and empirical research, and interpersonal aggregation phenomena: Selected examples 1950-1990," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-38, June.
    2. Wright, William F. & Anderson, Urton, 1989. "Effects of situation familiarity and financial incentives on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic for probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 68-82, August.
    3. Ono, Kaoru & Tindale, R. Scott & Hulin, Charles L. & Davis, James H., 1988. "Intuition vs. deduction: Some thought experiments concerning Likert's linking-pin theory of organization," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 135-154, October.
    4. Ritov, Ilana, 1996. "Anchoring in Simulated Competitive Market Negotiation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 16-25, July.
    5. Diekmann, Kristina A. & Tenbrunsel, Ann E. & Shah, Pri Pradhan & Schroth, Holly A. & Bazerman, Max H., 1996. "The Descriptive and Prescriptive Use of Previous Purchase Price in Negotiations," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 179-191, May.
    6. Kameda, Tatsuya & Davis, James H., 1990. "The function of the reference point in individual and group risk decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 55-76, June.
    7. Argote, Linda & Seabright, Mark A. & Dyer, Linda, 1986. "Individual versus group use of base-rate and individuating information," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 65-75, August.
    8. Huber, Vandra L. & Neale, Margaret A., 1986. "Effects of cognitive heuristics and goals on negotiator performance and subsequent goal setting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 342-365, December.
    9. repec:bla:joares:v:19:y:1981:i:1:p:120-145 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Stone, Dan N. & Ziebart, David A., 1995. "A Model of Financial Incentive Effects in Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 250-261, March.
    11. Davis, Harry L & Hoch, Stephen J & Ragsdale, E K Easton, 1986. " An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 25-37, June.
    12. Sniezek, Janet A., 1992. "Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 124-155, June.
    13. Sniezek, Janet A. & Henry, Rebecca A., 1989. "Accuracy and confidence in group judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-28, February.
    14. Sniezek, Janet A., 1988. "Prediction with single event versus aggregate data," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 196-210, April.
    15. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 251-278, October.
    16. Stasser, Garold, 1992. "Information salience and the discovery of hidden profiles by decision-making groups: A "thought experiment"," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 156-181, June.
    17. Switzer, Fred S. & Sniezek, Janet A., 1991. "Judgment processes in motivation: Anchoring and adjustment effects on judgment and behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 208-229, August.
    18. Block, Richard A. & Harper, David R., 1991. "Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 188-207, August.
    19. Whyte, Glen, 1993. "Escalating Commitment in Individual and Group Decision Making: A Prospect Theory Approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 430-455, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Maciejovsky & Tarek El-Sehitya & Hans Haumerb & Christian Helmensteinc & Erich Kirchlerd, "undated". "Hindsight Bias and Individual Risk Attitude within the Context of Experimental Asset Markets," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-16, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    2. Maria Pollai & Erik Hoelzl & Flavia Possas, 2010. "Consumption-related emotions over time: Fit between prediction and experience," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 397-411, December.
    3. Ofir, Chezy & Mazursky, David, 1997. "Does a Surprising Outcome Reinforce or Reverse the Hindsight Bias?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 50-57, January.
    4. Brown, Susan A. & Venkatesh, Viswanath & Kuruzovich, Jason & Massey, Anne P., 2008. "Expectation confirmation: An examination of three competing models," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 52-66, January.
    5. Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar & Lechner, Christian, 2013. "Cognitive biases, organization, and entrepreneurial firm survival," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 278-294.
    6. Fessel, Florian & Epstude, Kai & Roese, Neal J., 2009. "Hindsight bias redefined: It's about time," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 56-64, September.
    7. Werth, Lioba & Strack, Fritz & Forster, Jens, 2002. "Certainty and Uncertainty: The Two Faces of the Hindsight Bias," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 323-341, March.
    8. Sheng, Liang, 2015. "Dynamic dual process account explaining the bias after outcome – An exploratory research on memory distortion hindsight bias," Working Papers 39948, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    9. Cassar, Gavin & Craig, Justin, 2009. "An investigation of hindsight bias in nascent venture activity," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 149-164, March.
    10. Louie, Therese A., 2005. "Hindsight bias and outcome-consistent thoughts when observing and making service provider decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 88-95, September.
    11. Palmeira, Mauricio & Spassova, Gerri & Keh, Hean Tat, 2015. "Other-serving bias in advice-taking: When advisors receive more credit than blame," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 13-25.
    12. Schuett, Florian & Wagner, Alexander K., 2011. "Hindsight-biased evaluation of political decision makers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1621-1634.
    13. Pieters, Rik & Baumgartner, Hans & Bagozzi, Richard, 2006. "Biased memory for prior decision making: Evidence from a longitudinal field study," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 34-48, January.

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