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The Role of Surprise in Hindsight Bias – A Metacognitive Model of Reduced and Reversed Hindsight Bias

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  • Müller, Patrick A.

    (Department of Social and Organizational Psychology, Utrecht University)

  • Stahlberg, Dagmar

    (Lehrstuhl fuer Sozialpsychologie, Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

Abstract

Hindsight bias is the well researched phenomenon that people falsely believe that they would have correctly predicted the outcome of an event once it is known. In recent years, several authors have doubted the ubiquity of the effect and have reported a reversal under certain conditions. This article presents an integrative model on the role of surprise as one factor explaining the malleability of the hindsight bias. Three ways in which surprise influences the reconstruction of pre-outcome predictions are assumed: (1) Surprise is used as direct metacognitive heuristic to estimate the distance between outcome and prediction. (2) Surprise triggers a deliberate sense-making process, and (3) also biases this process by enhancing the retrieval of surprise-congruent information and expectancy-based hypothesis testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller, Patrick A. & Stahlberg, Dagmar, 2007. "The Role of Surprise in Hindsight Bias – A Metacognitive Model of Reduced and Reversed Hindsight Bias," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-16, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    • Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:07-16
    Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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    File URL: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/publications/dp07-16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stahlberg, Dagmar & Eller, Frank & Maass, Anne & Frey, Dieter, 1995. "We Knew It All Along: Hindsight Bias in Groups," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 46-58, July.
    2. Christensen-Szalanski, Jay J. J. & Willham, Cynthia Fobian, 1991. "The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 147-168, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Engel, Christoph & Kube, Sebastian & Kurschilgen, Michael, 2021. "Managing expectations: How selective information affects cooperation and punishment in social dilemma games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 111-136.
    2. Fessel, Florian & Epstude, Kai & Roese, Neal J., 2009. "Hindsight bias redefined: It's about time," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 56-64, September.
    3. Julien Geissmar & Thomas Niemand & Sascha Kraus, 2023. "Surprisingly unsustainable: How and when hindsight biases shape consumer evaluations of unsustainable and sustainable products," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(8), pages 5969-5991, December.

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