Comparing Seasonal Forecasts of Industrial Production
This paper presents an analysis of the effect of bureaucratic corruption on economic growth through a public ?nance transmission channel. At the theoretical level, we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model in which fi?nancial intermediaries make portfolio decisions on behalf of agents, and bureaucrats collect tax revenues on behalf of the government. Corruption takes the form of the embezzlement of public funds, the effect of which is to increase the government's reliance on seigniorage ?nance. This leads to an increase in inflation which, in turn, reduces capital accumulation and growth. At the empirical level, we use data on 82 countries over a 20-year period to test the predictions of our model. Taking proper account of the government's budget constraint, we ?find strong evidence to support these predictions under different estimation strategies. Our results are robust to a wide range of sensitivity tests.
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- Mishra, Ajit, 2002.
"Hierarchies, incentives and collusion in a model of enforcement,"
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- Patrick A. Imam & Davina F. Jacobs, 2007.
"Effect of Corruption on Tax Revenues in the Middle East,"
IMF Working Papers
07/270, International Monetary Fund.
- Imam Patrick Amir & Jacobs Davina, 2014. "Effect of Corruption on Tax Revenues in the Middle East," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 24, April.
- Blackburn, Keith & Forgues-Puccio, Gonzalo F., 2007.
"Distribution and development in a model of misgovernance,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1534-1563, August.
- Blackburn, Keith & Forgues-Puccio, Gonzalo F., 2005. "Distribution and Development in a Model of Misgovernance," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 15, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- K Blackburn & G F Forgues-Puccio, 2004. "Distribution and Development in a Model of Misgovernance," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 42, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Basu, Kaushik & Bhattacharya, Sudipto & Mishra, Ajit, 1992. "Notes on bribery and the control of corruption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 349-359, August.
- Bose, Gautam, 2004. "Bureaucratic delays and bribe-taking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 313-320, July.
- Lorenzo Pellegrini & Reyer Gerlagh, 2004. "Corruption's Effect on Growth and its Transmission Channels," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 429-456, 08.
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