Indicators of Electoral Victory
We study a two-party contest where candidates strategically allocate their campaign resources between two salient issues. We analyze to what extent the following indicators of a party's success predict the electoral victory: (1) the pre-campaign advantage, (2) the advantage on every salient issue, and (3) the advantage on campaign resources. We show that the electoral victory is guaranteed only when a party has a "sufficiently large" advantage on every salient issue. Otherwise no combination of these indicators ensures the electoral victory.
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- Laffond, G. & Laine, J., 2006.
"Single-switch preferences and the Ostrogorski paradox,"
Mathematical Social Sciences,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 49-66, July.
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