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Defuzzification in Scenario Management – A theoretical and practical Guide

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Spengler

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

  • Sebastian Herzog

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

Abstract

It is virtually a truism that companies should respond to situations of high complexity, dynamics and contingency with strategic management measures. Not least in turbulent VUCA-type environments, the company is well advised to use alternative scenarios for environmental forecasting. The so-called scenario technique is used for this purpose. Human modes of thought, judgment and action are often ambiguous and rarely univocal. Here, so-called expert (control) systems based on fuzzy control offer valuable help. Their core is rule inference resulting in fuzzy rule output. In many cases, however, managers are interested in receiving concrete recommendations for action that are as unambiguous as possible. To do so, they need to defuzzify the fuzzy output set. In this paper, we consider selected defuzzification procedures in the area of scenario management.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Spengler & Sebastian Herzog, 2023. "Defuzzification in Scenario Management – A theoretical and practical Guide," FEMM Working Papers 23005, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:mag:wpaper:23005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Linneman, Robert E. & Klein, Harold E., 1985. "Using scenarios in strategic decision making," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 64-74.
    2. Fabrice Roubelat, 2000. "Scenario Planning as a Networking Process," Post-Print hal-02148889, HAL.
    3. Cornelis A. De Kluyver & Herbert Moskowitz, 1984. "Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 273-278, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Spengler & Sebastian Herzog & Kim Michelle Siegling, 2024. "Unscharfe Regelsysteme im Strategischen Management," FEMM Working Papers 24002, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    2. Kim Michelle Siegling, 2024. "Eine experimentelle Untersuchung von Framing zur Beeinflussung der Performanz," FEMM Working Papers 24003, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.

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    JEL classification:

    • A20 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - General
    • A22 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - Undergraduate
    • A23 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - Graduate
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • M20 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - General
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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