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Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming


  • Cornelis A. De Kluyver

    (University of Virginia)

  • Herbert Moskowitz

    (Purdue University)


An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornelis A. De Kluyver & Herbert Moskowitz, 1984. "Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 273-278, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:30:y:1984:i:3:p:273-278

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ian I. Mitroff, 1972. "The Myth of Objectivity OR Why Science Needs a New Psychology of Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(10), pages 613-618, June.
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    1. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:10:d:10.1057_jors.2009.107 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:ejores:v:266:y:2018:i:1:p:205-220 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Moormann, Jürgen, 1987. "Zum Einsatz von MICRO-FCS und Symphony für die strategische Unternehmensplanung," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 202, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    4. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2008. "Cross-impact balances," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3689-3700.


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