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Les leçons du mariage entre les modèles d'équilibre général calculable et la nouvelle théorie du commerce international: application à la Tunisie

  • Cockburn, John

    ()

  • Decaluwe, Bernard
  • Dostie, Benoît

La nouvelle théorie du commerce international démontre que la présence de concurrence imparfaite et d'économies d'échelle peut modifier de manière radicale les impacts de politiques commerciales. Toutefois, malgré l'ampleur apparente de ces deux phénomènes dans les pays en développement et les réformes commerciales qui y sont présentement appliquées, très rares sont les études appliquées qui en tiennent compte. De plus, nous montrons que la principale étude qui fait exception contient une incohérence de modélisation qui mène à une surestimation considérable de l'effet dit pro-compétitif de la libéralisation commerciale. Nous présentons en détail les fondements théoriques et la procédure à suivre pour une intégration cohérente de la concurrence imparfaite dans un modèle traditionnel d'équilibre général calculable. Le fonctionnement du modèle est ensuite illustré à travers une application à la Tunisie, application qui indique que l'effet pro-compétitif à espérer de la libéralisation commerciale y est faible. The new trade theory shows that taking into account imperfect competition and economies of scale can drastically modify our predictions concerning the impact of trade policy. However, despite the apparent importance of these phenomena and the extent of current trade liberalisation in developing countries, there are extremely few empirical trade analyses which take them into account. Further, we find that the principal exception to this rule is a study which contains a modelling inconsistency leading to a considerable overestimation of the pro-competitive effects of trade liberalisation. We present in detail the theoretical foundations and the procedure to follow in consistently modelling imperfect competition in a tradition computable general equilibrium trade model. An illustration is then provided through an analysis of Tunisian trade policy options which indicates that very limited pro-competitive effects are to be expected from trade liberalisation.

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Paper provided by Université Laval - Département d'économique in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9804.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:laeccr:9804
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