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Les leçons du mariage entre les modèles d'équilibre général calculable et la nouvelle théorie du commerce international: application à la Tunisie

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  • Cockburn, John

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  • Decaluwe, Bernard
  • Dostie, Benoît

Abstract

La nouvelle théorie du commerce international démontre que la présence de concurrence imparfaite et d'économies d'échelle peut modifier de manière radicale les impacts de politiques commerciales. Toutefois, malgré l'ampleur apparente de ces deux phénomènes dans les pays en développement et les réformes commerciales qui y sont présentement appliquées, très rares sont les études appliquées qui en tiennent compte. De plus, nous montrons que la principale étude qui fait exception contient une incohérence de modélisation qui mène à une surestimation considérable de l'effet dit pro-compétitif de la libéralisation commerciale. Nous présentons en détail les fondements théoriques et la procédure à suivre pour une intégration cohérente de la concurrence imparfaite dans un modèle traditionnel d'équilibre général calculable. Le fonctionnement du modèle est ensuite illustré à travers une application à la Tunisie, application qui indique que l'effet pro-compétitif à espérer de la libéralisation commerciale y est faible. The new trade theory shows that taking into account imperfect competition and economies of scale can drastically modify our predictions concerning the impact of trade policy. However, despite the apparent importance of these phenomena and the extent of current trade liberalisation in developing countries, there are extremely few empirical trade analyses which take them into account. Further, we find that the principal exception to this rule is a study which contains a modelling inconsistency leading to a considerable overestimation of the pro-competitive effects of trade liberalisation. We present in detail the theoretical foundations and the procedure to follow in consistently modelling imperfect competition in a tradition computable general equilibrium trade model. An illustration is then provided through an analysis of Tunisian trade policy options which indicates that very limited pro-competitive effects are to be expected from trade liberalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cockburn, John & Decaluwe, Bernard & Dostie, Benoît, 1998. "Les leçons du mariage entre les modèles d'équilibre général calculable et la nouvelle théorie du commerce international: application à la Tunisie," Cahiers de recherche 9804, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:laeccr:9804
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    File URL: http://www.ecn.ulaval.ca/w3/recherche/cahiers/1998/9804.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
    2. Katrak, Homi, 1977. "Multi-national Monopolies and Commercial Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 283-291, July.
    3. Westbrook, M Daniel & Tybout, James R, 1993. "Estimating Returns to Scale with Large, Imperfect Panels: An Application to Chilean Manufacturing Industries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 85-112, January.
    4. Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 1991. "Size Rationalization and Trade Exposure in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters,in: Empirical Studies of Commercial Policy, pages 169-200 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Pro-competitive effects of trade reform : Results from a CGE model of Cameroon," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1157-1184, July.
    6. Asad Alam, 1995. "The New Trade Theory and its Relevance to the Trade Policies of Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 367-385, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-François Gautier, 2000. "L’informel est-il une forme de fraude fiscale ? Une analyse microéconométrique de la fraude fiscale des micro-entreprises à Madagascar," Working Papers DT/2000/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    2. Lucke, Bernd & Zotti, Jacopo, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of the Barcelona Initiative," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 837-854.
    3. Haykel HADJ SALEM, "undated". "Impacts of the Euro-Tunisian Agreements of Free Exchange: Evaluation by a Computable General Equilibrium Model in 1996," EcoMod2004 330600062, EcoMod.
    4. Haykel HADJ SALEM, "undated". "Impacts of the Euro-Tunisian Agreements of Free Exchange: Evaluation by a Computable General Equilibrium Model in 1996," Middle East and North Africa 330400034, EcoMod.
    5. Haykel Hadj Salem, 2004. "Impacts of the Euro-Tunisian agreements of free exchange: evaluation by a Computable General Equilibrium Model in 1996," Computational Economics 0410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Patricia Augier & Michael Gasiorek & Charles Lai Tong, 2005. "The impact of rules of origin on trade flows," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(43), pages 567-624, July.
    7. Sabine Mage-Bertomeu, 2006. "Les modèles d'équilibre général appliqués à la politique commerciale : développements récents," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(3), pages 357-381.
    8. Fida Karam, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and the Skill Composition of Migrant Flows: the Case of Morocco," Working Papers 595, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 Jan 2011.

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    Keywords

    Équilibre général - concurrence imparfaite - Tunisie;

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