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Likelihood-based panel cointegration test in the presence of a linear time trend and cross-sectional dependence

  • Antonia Arsova

    ()

    (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany)

  • Deniz Dilan Karaman Oersal

    ()

    (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany)

This paper proposes a new likelihood-based panel cointegration rank test which extends the test of Oersal and Droge (2012) (henceforth Panel SL test) to allow for crosssectional dependence. The dependence is modelled by unobserved common factors which affect the variables in each cross-section through heterogeneous loadings. The common components are estimated following the panel analysis of nonstationarity in idiosyncratic and common components (PANIC) approach of Bai and Ng (2004) and the estimates are subtracted from the observations. The cointegrating rank of the defactored data is then tested by the Panel SL test. A Monte Carlo study demonstrates that the proposed testing procedure has reasonable size and power properties in finite samples.

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Paper provided by University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics with number 280.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lue:wpaper:280
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  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  2. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2010. "The Performance of Panel Cointegration Methods: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 182-223, April.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  4. Groen, Jan J J & Kleibergen, Frank, 2003. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error-Correction Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 295-318, April.
  5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  6. Laurent A.F. Callot, 2010. "A Bootstrap Cointegration Rank Test for Panels of VAR Models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-75, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. Carsten Trenkler, 2008. "Determining p-values for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 19-39, January.
  8. Miller J. Isaac, 2010. "A Nonlinear IV Likelihood-Based Rank Test for Multivariate Time Series and Long Panels," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-38, September.
  9. Toda, Hiro Y, 1994. "Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 66-79, February.
  10. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  11. Alexei Onatski, 2005. "Determining the number of factors from empirical distribution of eigenvalues," Discussion Papers 0405-19, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  12. Bernd Droge & Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2009. "Panel Cointegration Testing in the Presence of a Time Trend," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  13. Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2001. "Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 8.
  14. Jushan Bai & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2013. "Testing panel cointegration with unobservable dynamic common factors that are correlated with the regressors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(2), pages 222-249, 06.
  15. Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1015-1032, October.
  16. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41.
  17. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2006. "Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 683-719, December.
  18. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
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