The impact of MENA-to-EU migration in the context of demographic change
In this paper, we analyze the consequences of increasing MENA-to-EU migration flows on both sending and receiving regions. In the first part of the paper, we characterize the structure of MENA emigration as well as the demographic trends in the EU and MENA. We show that EU27 is a major destination for 9 MENA countries, including Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Potential increased flows of MENA-to-EU migration in the future would in all probability particularly impact these countries. Moreover, replacement migration policies encouraging MENA-to-EU flows of working-age people would need to be temporary, as MENA countries themselves will be facing labor shortages in the future. In the second part of the paper, we analyze the economic effects of increased migration using a general equilibrium model. We find that increasing MENA-to-EU migration would generate significant changes in EU15 tax rates and GNI per capita, smoothing the fiscal and economic burdens of aging. Compared to a non-selective immigration shock, selecting immigrants has a moderate impact in reducing tax rates, but leads to a greater impact on GNI per capita in the EU15. On the other hand, increases in emigration, without some compensating policies on education, would have a strong detrimental impact on MENA tax rates, especially if emigrants are high-skilled. Regarding GNI per capita and inequality in MENA, increasing low-skilled emigration leads to strong improvements (mainly due to remittances) while increasing high-high-skilled emigration induces detrimental consequences. Finally, the negative effects of a more selective migration policy in MENA may be considerably mitigated if the brain drain leads to sideeffects or is accompanied by increased education attainment at origin. In particular, our results suggest that a stronger partnership between EU15 and selected MENA countries, involving more high-skilled migration and a greater cooperation in human capital formation, could raise the welfare of all parties concerned.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+352) 46 66 44
Fax: (+352) 46 66 44 ext 633
Web page: http://wwwen.uni.lu/research/fdef/crea
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Docquier, Frédéric & Marchiori, Luca & Shen, I-Ling, 2010.
"Brain drain in globalization: A general equilibrium analysis from the sending countries’ perspective,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7682, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luca Marchiori & I-Ling Shen & Frédéric Docquier, 2013. "Brain Drain In Globalization: A General Equilibrium Analysis From The Sending Countries' Perspective," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1582-1602, 04.
- Marchiori, Luca & Shen, I-Ling & Docquier, Frédéric, 2009. "Brain Drain in Globalization: A General Equilibrium Analysis from the Sending Countries' Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 4207, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Luca MARCHIORI & I-Ling SHEN & Frederic DOCQUIER, 2009. "Brain drain in globalization A general equilibrium analysis from the sending countries’ perspective," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Cobb-Clark, Deborah A, 1993. "Immigrant Selectivity and Wages: The Evidence for Women," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 986-93, September.
- Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007.
"Growth and human capital: good data, good results,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:10-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elisa Ferreira)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.