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Export of Deindustrialization and Anti-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: The Consequences of Productivity Growth Differential

  • Hiroaki Sasaki

This paper focuses on productivity growth differentials between manufacturing and services, deindustrialization, and changes in the real exchange rate. Using a Ricardian trade model with a continuum of goods that introduces nontraded services, the paper investigates these interrelationships. The main results are as follows: (i) if deindustrialization proceeds in both home and foreign countries, then the ratio of home manufacturing employment share to foreign manufacturing employment share and the real exchange rate move in the same direction; (ii) even if the productivity growth di erential in the home country is greater than that in the foreign county, the extent of deindustrialization in the home country is not necessarily larger than that in the foreing country. On the contrary, it is possible that the foreign deindustrialization exceeds the home deindustrialization; and (iii) even if the productivity growth di erential in the home country is greater than that in the foreign county, the real exchange rate of the home country can depreciate contrary to the expectaion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect.

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File URL: http://www.econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp/projectcenter/Paper/e-10-015.pdf
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Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University in its series Discussion papers with number e-10-015.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-10-015
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  1. Antonio Spilimbergo, 1995. "De-Industrialization and Trade," Research Department Publications 4014, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Pugno, Maurizio, 2006. "The service paradox and endogenous economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 99-115, January.
  3. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  4. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2007. "The rise of service employment and its impact on aggregate productivity growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 438-459, December.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
  6. Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 10569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Victor R. Fuchs, 1968. "The Service Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fuch68-1, June.
  8. Oulton, Nicholas, 2001. "Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumol's Unbalanced Growth Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 605-27, October.
  9. Bonatti, Luigi & Felice, Giulia, 2008. "Endogenous growth and changing sectoral composition in advanced economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-131, June.
  10. Claudio De Vincenti, 2007. "'Baumol'S Disease', Production Externalities And Productivity Effects Of Intersectoral Transfers," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 396-412, 07.
  11. Munehisa Kasuya & Toshihiro Okada, 2007. "The Effects of Technology Changes on Sectoral Trade Patterns," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 112-125, 02.
  12. Jaewoo Lee & Man-Keung Tang, 2007. "Does Productivity Growth Appreciate the Real Exchange Rate?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 164-187, 02.
  13. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-38, December.
  14. Falvey, Rodney E & Gemmell, Norman, 1996. "Are Services Income-Elastic? Some New Evidence," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 42(3), pages 257-69, September.
  15. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  16. Fixler, Dennis J. & Siegel, Donald, 1999. "Outsourcing and productivity growth in services," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 177-194, June.
  17. Golub, Stephen S & Hsieh, Chang-Tai, 2000. "Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 221-34, May.
  18. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
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