EU Integration and Trade: a Look from the Outside of the EU Eastern Border?
This paper develops a methodology for trade policy analysis of costs and benefits of alternative regional integration scenarios, based on the disaggregated gravity equation, and applies it to calculate the impact of the EU enlargement on integration strategies of non-member countries. In particular, the paper measures the impact of the 2004 EU enlargement from the standpoint of Ukraine – a country that has been lost in transition; Ukraine moves away from CIS, but does not get closer to EU. This angle allows estimating the costs of non-integration that occurred due to trade and investment diversion, and forgone opportunity to carry our structural changes in the Ukrainian economy. According to the results, EU accession would have had a small positive effect on total export volumes but would have dramatically changed the composition of Ukrainian exports by almost doubling exports of manufactured goods by 2007. The costs of non-integration accumulate towards the end of the investigated period. Projecting the results into the future clearly indicates that the benefits of EU accession for Ukraine would have been unambiguously positive and would overweight benefits of CIS integration.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2009|
|Note:||Under review in the Economics of Transition|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Str. Dmytrivska, 92-94, 4th Floor, office 404, Kyiv, 01135|
Web page: http://www.kse.org.ua/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Hwang, Jason & Rodrik, Dani, 2005.
"What You Export Matters,"
Working Paper Series
rwp05-063, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, 08.
- Wang, Z.K. & Winters, L.A., 1992.
"The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe,"
92-21, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Mark J. Melitz, 2002.
"The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,"
NBER Working Papers
8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
- Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2002.
"Economic Development as Self-Discovery,"
Working Paper Series
rwp02-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- J. A. Hausman & W. E. Taylor, 1980.
"Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects,"
255, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May.
- Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991.
"The move toward free trade zones,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Nov, pages 5-25.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "The move toward free trade zones," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-58.
- Ricahrd E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
- Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006.
"Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381.
- Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008.
"Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,"
3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
- Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644 Elsevier.
- Nilsson, Lars, 2000. "Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 807-827, November.
- Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr & Roland Schmidt, 2007. "Trade in Western and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of COMECON: an assessment of behavioral change," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 102-126, January.
- Baldwin, Richard E., 1995. "The Eastern enlargement of the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 474-481, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kse:dpaper:22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Iryna Sobetska)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.