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An outlier-robust extreme bounds analysis of the determinants of health-care expenditure growth

Hartwig (2008) has presented empirical evidence that the difference between real wage growth and productivity growth at the macroeconomic level is a robust explanatory variable for deflated health-care expenditure growth in OECD countries. In this paper, we test whether this finding is robust to the inclusion of additional covariates, applying different versions of Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to data for 33 OECD countries over the period 1970-2010. As far as it is statistically feasible, all macroeconomic and institutional determinants of health-care expenditure growth that have been suggested in the literature are included in the EBA. Furthermore, we analyse to what extent outliers in the data influence the results using an outlier-robust MM estimator. Our results confirm Hartwig’s earlier finding. A number of additional both covariate- and outlier-robust determinants are also identified.

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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 12-307.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-307
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  2. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
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  7. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Development aid and international politics: Does membership on the UN Security Council influence World Bank decisions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-18, January.
  8. Theo Hitiris, 1997. "Health care expenditure and integration in the countries of the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 1-6.
  9. Potrafke, Niklas, 2010. "The growth of public health expenditures in OECD countries: Do government ideology and electoral motives matter?," Munich Reprints in Economics 19280, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  10. Bates, Laurie J. & Santerre, Rexford E., 2013. "Does the U.S. health care sector suffer from Baumol's cost disease? Evidence from the 50 states," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 386-391.
  11. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
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  13. Elizabeth Docteur & Howard Oxley, 2003. "Health-Care Systems: Lessons from the Reform Experience," OECD Health Working Papers 9, OECD Publishing.
  14. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Determinants of pollution: what do we really know?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 568-595, July.
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  17. Ilaria Mosca, 2007. "Decentralization as a determinant of health care expenditure: empirical analysis for OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 511-515.
  18. Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob, 2004. "Which variables explain decisions on IMF credit? An extreme bounds analysis," Discussion Papers 2004/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  19. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF Lending Decisions after the Cold War," KOF Working papers 11-279, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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  22. Vincenzo Verardi & Christophe Croux, 2009. "Robust regression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(3), pages 439-453, September.
  23. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
  24. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. "Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 181-205, July.
  25. Di Matteo, Livio, 2005. "The macro determinants of health expenditure in the United States and Canada: assessing the impact of income, age distribution and time," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 23-42, January.
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