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Do CDS markets care about the G-SIB status?

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Abstract

"Ending too big to fail" is a declared policy aim and a key element of the globally coordinated financial regulatory reform. An official list of banks considered to be global systemically important (G-SIBs) is published on an annual basis since 2011. The goal of the present paper is to assess to what extent equity and CDS markets care about the official releases of the G-SIB lists and, in particular, whether the inclusion of a bank in the G-SIB list is good or bad news for bank debt and equity holders. The analysis applies both event-studies and panel regressions and relies upon European banks' CDS senior and subordinated quotes and equity prices to evaluate their reactions to the publications of the G-SIB lists. The analysis spans from the first leaked G-SIB list by the Financial Times as of 2009 to the 2017 official publication of the list. Results show that equity and senior/subordinated CDS spreads react differently to the events considered and that reactions evolve over time. During the rst events considered in the analysis, CDS of banks classified as G-SIBs react less than those of other banks. Results for more recent events are more mixed, potentially reflecting that recent releases of G-SIBs lists entail less information. The analysis also devotes special attention to a subset of "intermediate" banks that in principle are eligible to enter in the G-SIBs list, as compared to other banks that will obviously be included/excluded in the list given their size and footprint. This narrowed focus allows us to obtain more efficient results.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellia, Mario & Heynderickx, Wouter & Maccaferri, Sara & Schich, Sebastian, 2020. "Do CDS markets care about the G-SIB status?," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2020-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Default Swap (CDS); G-SIB; Too Big to Fail; Event Study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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